Braves vs. Phillies Free MLB Picks and Preview

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Ranger Suarez #55 of the Philadelphia Phillies looks on during the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images/AFP

After getting swept by the Chicago Cubs, how will the Philadelphia Phillies respond in the opening game of their series against the Atlanta Braves?

Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks!

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Monday, July 25, 2022, 07:05 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park

The Philadelphia Phillies just dropped three straight to the Chicago Cubs to start the second half of the season. They are now just three games ahead of .500 and will take on one of the hottest teams in baseball: the Atlanta Braves.

The Braves might’ve lost yesterday, but at 58-39 on the season, they are inching closer and closer to leading the NL East.

How will the Phillies respond to getting swept by Chicago tonight? Here are our MLB picks and predictions for the Braves vs. Phillies game.

The Pitching Match-Up

The Atlanta Braves will send out Max Fried, a left-hander with a 10-3 record. Fried also has a 2.64 ERA and has been extremely consistent throughout the year.

In the last 30 days, he’s struggled a bit, however, as he’s holding a 4.34 xFIP in the last 30 days. On top of that, he’s struck out just 20.6% of batters in that time frame.

Meanwhile, he’ll take on another fellow lefty in Ranger Suarez of the Phillies. Suarez has a 7-5 record with a 4.07 ERA this year.

He’s actually been better than Fried analytically in the last 30 days, holding a 3.20 xFIP with 25% of strikeouts in that time frame.

Who Has the More Favorable Lineup?

The Braves have been very good against lefties throughout the year. However, Atlanta has been struggling in the last 30 days.

The projected lineup has a .138 ISO with over 23% of strikeouts. The Braves have still hit 25.5% of line drives against lefties and have four players hitting a wOBA of .369 or greater, but only Matt Olson and Austin Riley have solid ISO numbers against lefties in the last month.

On the other hand, the Phillies have hit lefties more consistently in the last 30 days, hitting an ISO of .159 and a wOBA of .3180.

Philadelphia has struck out just 16.6% of the time against lefties with their projected lineup as of late, and they have also walked over 11% of the time. The Phillies are only hitting 20.2% of line drives but ultimately should be able to put the ball in play more frequently than the Braves.

Game Prediction

Max Fried has been the better pitcher throughout the season. The Braves have also been the better team of the year.

However, Max Fried hasn’t been himself recently. He’s allowing nearly 22% of line drives and has a high xFIP of 4.34 in the last 30 days. The strikeouts are also down and he’s likely not going to be able to earn many against this Phillies lineup in the first place.

Only two batters in the Phillies lineup are striking out more than 19% of the time against lefties:

  • Kyle Schwarber
  • J.T. Realmuto

Those are the two bats with the most power against lefties. They’ll be swinging for the fence, and if they connect, they’ll come away with an extra-base hit. Of course, if they miss, they’ll end up striking out. Ultimately, the Phillies have a solid lineup to go up against Fried tonight.

Meanwhile, Suarez has been elite in the last 30 days. He’s giving up nearly 42% of hard contact but will likely earn plenty of strikeouts against the Braves. Atlanta has seven batters striking out at least 20.8% of the time against lefties in the last 30 days.

The bottom protein of the order is really struggling against lefties for the Braves, between Marcell Ozuna, Eddie Rosario, Orlando Arcia, and Michael Harris. Plus, Suarez has induced 51.6% of ground balls in the last 30 days while minimizing fly balls.

The Pick

The Phillies have a terrible bullpen, but I like what Suarez brings to the table. They have performed better in the last 30 days with their projected lineup against lefties.

Meanwhile, Suarez has also been analytically better than Fried in the last 30 days.

I’m not going to take the Phillies in the full game, but I like the Phillies to hold the lead through five innings. Even if it’s tied, I’d be okay.

With my MLB Play of the Day, I want the Phillies +.5 in the first five innings at -105. The Phillies look so much better on paper today.

The public is going to love the Braves with Fried on the mound, taking on a Phillies group that just got swept by the Cubs. But the numbers say Phillies!

MLB Pick: Phillies F5 +0.5 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Phillies F5 +0.5 (-105)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.