Braves vs. Nationals Free MLB Picks and Preview

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Ian Anderson #36 of the Atlanta Braves pitches during the first inning against the Oakland Athletics. Todd Kirkland/Getty Images/AFP

The Atlanta Braves are on an 11-game winning streak and currently can’t be stopped. Will the Nationals find the answer, at home, against the Braves, in the first game of the NL East series to start the week? Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the best sportsbooks

Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals

Monday, June 13, 2022 – 07:05 PM EDT at Nationals Park

The Atlanta Braves just can’t lose right now. The Braves are currently 34-27 and inching closer in the NL East Standings thanks to an 11-game winning streak. 

Granted, the Braves just came off a series against the Pirates, but that’s the same Pirates team that defeated the Dodgers in a series on the road. No series win or sweep should be shrugged off. 

Here are our best bets and predictions for tonight’s NL East game between the Braves and Nationals. 

The Pitching Matchup

The Washington Nationals will send out Josiah Gray for tonight’s game. Gray has been improving as of late and now has a 4.91 xFIP in the last 30 days with 27.5% of strikeouts. In that same time frame, Gray has walked 10.1% of batters and has allowed 24.6% of line drives while inducing just 27.7% of grounders. He hasn’t been perfect, but he’s been improving. 

On the other hand, Ian Anderson will get the call for the Braves. Anderson has had a 4.58 xFIP in the last 30 days with 7.9% of walks. However, he has struck out 22.2% of batters in the last 30 days while limiting line drives to 20.5%.  

Anderson has struggled against righties, giving up a .393 wOBA and ISO of .244 but has destroyed lefties, despite being a right-handed pitcher. 

Who Has the More Favorable Lineup?

The Nationals don’t have very many consistent righties in the lineup that hit righties well. Only Lance Thomas has inflated numbers against righties as a right-hander, with a .327 ISO and wOBA of .415.

As a team, against righties, the Nationals have a .155 ISO and wOBA of .308 in the last 30 days with the projected lineup. Only Nelson Cruz and Thomas have a wOBA number greater than .320 in the lineup. 

On the other hand, the Braves are also improving their offense against righties, with a .182 ISO and wOBA of .325 in the last 30 days. The major problem for the Braves is that they’ve struck out 27.1% of the time against righties in the last 30 days and Gray is a heavy strikeout thrower. That can keep the Braves off guard in this one. 

Game Prediction

Other than Thomas and Cruz, the Nationals lineup looks a bit lackluster. Thomas has been red hot and earned a leadoff role with the team but other than that, the offense has struggled a lot, and now the Nationals are just 23-39 because of it. 

Still, Anderson has been bad against righties, giving guys like Thomas and Cruz the chance to make a real impact in this game. However, there will likely be six lefties in the lineup facing Anderson, which isn’t a good sign. 

On the other hand, Gray might be doing better with his ERA and strikeouts, but his xFIP is still nearing 5 in the last 30 days. He’s not getting enough grounders and giving up too many line drives. To lefties, he’s allowing a .434 wOBA and ISO of .381 in the last 30 days and righties even have a .167 ISO against him in that time frame. 

Matt Olson and Ozzie Albies will be hitting for power against Gray but the rest of the lineup will be right-handed other than Michael Harris, who has struggled against righties this season. 

The Pick

With that said, I’m taking the under in this game between the Braves and Nationals. There are really only two batters on both sides that have made a consistent impact against the opposition in the last 30 days. 

Gray is improving on the mound as of late and should earn plenty of strikeouts in this one to escape from any kind of damage. Meanwhile, the Nationals are looking terrible on paper against righties and rarely have righties that can get to Anderson in this matchup. Therefore, I’ll take the under 9.5 for my MLB pick of the day. 

MLB Pick: Under 9.5 (-115) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Under 9.5 (-115)
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