After dominating the Braves throughout the weekend, the Mets have one more game to look forward to against the Braves.
The Mets are already 3-1 against the Braves but could extend their weekend record to one more win with today’s game. Do the Mets have another win in them?
Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks!
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Sunday, August 07, 2022 – 04:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
The New York Mets already won a five-game series over the Atlanta Braves with a doubleheader sweep yesterday.
Now the Mets will be looking to length the series win from three wins to four wins.
New York is currently 69-39 on the season and will be looking to add their 70th win of the year in today’s game. If the Mets can beat the Braves for the fourth time in five games, the Mets would be 6.5 games above the Braves in the NL East.
Can the Mets earn a huge victory over the Braves? Here are our MLB picks and predictions for the exciting rivalry game between the two best teams in the NL East.
The Pitching Match-Up
The Atlanta Braves will be sending out one of the top rookies in this year’s class. Spencer Strider will take the mound for the Braves with a 6-3 record along with a 2.79 ERA.
Recently, he’s been on par with his ERA, holding a 2.91 xFIP in the last 30 days. Strider has also struck out 36% of batters faced in the last 30 days.
He won’t get a load of ground balls or limit line drives, but he will limit batters connecting with the ball with their bats.
On the other hand, it’ll be Jacob deGrom on the mound for the Mets. deGrom returned off the injured list and pitched for the first time in over a year.
The righty had a no-decision and finished with a 1.80 ERA. We know what deGrom is capable of but he’ll still be on an innings or pitch limit in this game of six innings or 75 pitches.
Who Has the More Favorable Lineup?
The Braves have a .226 ISO and wOBA of .330 against righties in the last 30 days. However, this Braves projected lineup has also struck out 25.4% of the time against righties while only walking 6.8% of the time.
To make matters worse, the Braves have also hit just 15.8% of line drives against righties in the last 30 days. It’s boom or bust for the Braves, as I always say. They’re either connecting for home runs or striking out.
Against deGrom, expect more strikeouts.
On the other hand, the Mets are hitting a .200 ISO with a wOBA of .350 against righties in the last 30 days.
New York has hit 26.9% of line drives against righties while Strider has allowed 29.2% of line drives in the last 30 days.
The Mets have potential with the middle of their order with Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Daniel Vogelbach, Jeff McNeil, and Tyler Naquan, who have all hit for a high ISO against righties in the last 30 days.
In a game between Spencer Strider and Jacob deGrom, we’re not expecting much offense. Strider has wicked stuff and has already kept the Mets off-balanced earlier this season.
Strider has been way above-average but has allowed a .156 ISO to lefties in the last 30 days. That number is still above-average but just shows that lefties can hit for power against Strider more than righties.
The Mets will have at least six lefties in the lineup against Strider, which should help their case a bit.
Meanwhile, the Braves ended up striking out 11 times against Max Scherzer last night. deGrom won’t go 100 pitches in this game but he should be able to do exactly what Scherzer did and earn a bunch of strikeouts in this game.
The Braves are either going to hit home runs or strike out, and against deGrom, strikeouts probably make more sense in this one.
Our Betting Pick
The Mets usually lack run support when deGrom is on the mound. But this lineup does look much better with six lefties ready to face Strider.
Ultimately, the Mets bullpen is healthy after the doubleheader yesterday. They’ll be able to pitch Edwin Diaz to close things out if needed.
Therefore, with my MLB Play of the Day, give me the Mets at -145. I’ll trust the Mets in this spot.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.