Braves vs. Brewers NLDS Game 2 Picks: Regression Looming?

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Brandon Woodruff of the Milwaukee Brewers throws a pitch. John Fisher/Getty Images/AFP

The Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers clash in Game 2 of their best-of-five series on Saturday. Here’s a complete preview, including updated MLB odds and picks.

Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Saturday, October 09, 2021 – 05:07 PM EDT at American Family Field

Game 1 was a pitcher's duel between Charlie Morton and Corbin Burnes. Morton tied his postseason career-high with nine strikeouts but he would take the loss after giving up a two-run home run to Rowdy Tellez in the seventh inning. In the end, a single mistake changed the complexity of the game. Saturday's contest promises to be another close, low-scoring affair, with the Braves in desperate need to get back on track and steal home field advantage.

Atlanta will turn to their hottest pitcher right now. The Braves are going with Max Fried (3.31 FIP), while the Brewers respond with Brandon Woodruff (2.96 FIP). The Braves went 18-10 in Fried's 28 starts, up 5.4 units and the Brewers were down 5.2 units on a 16-14 record in Woodruff's 30 starts.

Max Fried (14-7, 3.04 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) has been lights out as of late, going 3-0 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in his last six starts. Fried was particularly dominant in his last three starts, winning all three of them while giving up just one earned run across 23 innings of work. The left-hander allowed two runs (one earned) on four hits with six strikeouts and zero walks over seven innings in a 7-2 home win against the Phillies on September 29th.

Brandon Woodruff (9-10, 2.56 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) is winless since August 31st and he was just 0-3 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his last four starts. Woodruff gave up two earned runs on seven hits (one home run) with three strikeouts and zero walks over four innings to get a no-decision in a 6-2 road loss against the Cardinals on September 28th.

Prediction

The Brewers opened at -126 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), but over at FiveThirtyEight, they already have them at +100 based on our calculations (they suggest the Brewers will win this game 50 percent of the time). The projections say there is some value on the Braves at +116 but the Under might be the way to go.

Saturday's weather report calls for temperatures in the low-70s at game time, mostly cloudy with 76 percent humidity and the 10 mph winds are expected to come blowing in from center field. Keep in mind that the retractable roof at American Family Field may neutralize some weather conditions. ESPN's park factors for 2021 have American Family Field ranked No. 3 overall for run creation at 1.278, and 34th in home runs at 0.556.

The Under is 14-13-1 in Fried's 28 starts and 16-12-2 in Woodruff's 30 starts. Right-handers hit just .223 in 458 at-bats against Fried this season and Woodruff has posted a 2.31 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 14 home starts. Atlanta's projected lineup has five batters with a strikeout rate above 21 percent and the Milwaukee lineup has four batters with a strikeout rate above 21 percent and three batters with a Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) above .340.

MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-110) at GTbets (visit out GTbets Review)

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Under 7.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.