Braves vs. Mets MLB Free Picks and Preview

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Carlos Carrasco #59 of the New York Mets delivers against the Houston Astros. Carmen Mandato/Getty Images/AFP.

The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves will begin their first game of a five-game series tonight. Both teams are battling it out in the NL East and this series could dictate the eventual divisional winner. Who do we have in the first game?

Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks! Here are our picks and predictions for this exciting matchup.

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets

Thursday, August 04, 2022 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field

What You Should Know

The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves will begin a five-game series over the next four days at Citi Field.

The Mets currently lead the NL East by 3.5 games and have the chance to really lengthen that lead, at home, against the Braves, over the weekend. Meanwhile, the Braves have just as much of a chance to close the gap and take over the NL East.

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Who Is Pitching for the Braves Today?

The Braves will send out Kyle Wright, who has had a phenomenal season. Wright has a 13-4 record with a 2.93 ERA on the season.

In the last 30 days, Wright has been just as good, holding a 3.61 xFIP with just 4.5% of walks allowed. However, his strikeouts are a bit low and he will give up a high amount of line drives.

Who Is Pitching for the Mets Today?

Meanwhile, Carlos Carrasco will take the hill for the Mets. He’s also had a sensational year, holding an 11-4 record with a 3.79 ERA on the year.

Like Wright, strikeouts have been down for Carrasco, but he’s been able to maximize his starts with 57.6% of ground balls induced in the last 30 days. He’s also limited power to both sides of the plate recently, which has helped him pitch deep into games.


Lineups Analysis

Atlanta Braves

  • The Braves are hitting a .233 ISO with a wOBA of .337 in the last 30 days against righties.
  • Atlanta has struggled to hit the ball, striking out 24.9% of the time against righties in that same time frame.
  • The Braves' projected lineup is walking just 7.3% of the time and hitting only 16.2% of line drives when balls are batted into play.
  • The Braves didn’t make any changes to their lineup at the deadline and that could come back to haunt them eventually.

New York Mets

  • The Mets are hitting an ISO of .188 with a wOBA of .347 against righties in the last 30 days.
  • Power might be down against righties but the Mets have been able to limit strikeouts to 19.3% with their projected lineup.
  • The projected lineup is hitting 28.6% of line drives when balls are batted into play.
  • The Mets are doing the little things right while the Braves are relying a little bit more on power.

Braves vs. Mets: Game Prediction

Mets' Lineup Against Kyle Wright

Wright has struggled against lefties recently, allowing a wOBA of .368 and an ISO of .237 in the last 30 days. Meanwhile, the Mets are now extremely flexible and able to platoon at multiple positions.

Therefore, the Mets will have at least six lefties in the lineup to take on Wright, who, again, has struggled against lefties. That should help.

Only Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso have hit under 20% of line drives against righties in the last 30 days. However, Nimmo and Alonso have still been able to hit a high ISO against righties in that time frame.

Braves' Lineup Against Carlos Carrasco

Carrasco has given up a .358 wOBA to righties in the last 340 days, but, again, has done so well limiting ISO numbers to both sides of the plate.

If the Braves can’t hit extra-base hits consistently against Carrasco, they will have trouble scoring. This team strikes out a lot and rarely hits line drives while smacking 44.2% of balls into the ground.

The Mets ultimately look better on paper and analytically. On top of that, the Mets will be home, in front of a large audience of fans cheering them on.


MLB Betting Pick for Today

The Mets were strategic at the trade deadline and made multiple acquisitions to help platoon at positions that weren’t producing.

New York looks so much better with Daniel Vogelbach and Tyler Naquin in the lineup in comparison to what they had originally.

I’ll ride with the Mets at -120 for my MLB picks of the day. Carrasco is going to earn plenty of strikeouts and ground balls.

MLB Pick: Mets ML (-120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Mets ML (-120)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.