After a low-scoring affair on Monday, can the Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers put some runs on the board for Tuesday’s game? Here’s our answer.
Tuesday, May 17, 2022- 07:40 PM EDT at American Family Field
Braves vs. Brewers May 16 Game Recap
The Milwaukee Brewers ended up defeating the Atlanta Braves, 1-0 in last night’s first game of the series. The offense was hard to come by, but I’d expect a whole lot more offense in tonight’s game.
The expectation is that Ronald Acuña Jr. will be back in the lineup after missing nearly a week of games due to a groin injury. Even if he isn’t, the matchups are looking juicy.
So let’s get right to it. Here are the betting picks and predictions for Tuesday’s baseball game between the Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers.
The Pitching Match-Up
The Braves will call up Tucker Davidson to make a start in tonight’s MLB game. Davidson only has one major league game under his belt, after allowing five runs in 2.2 innings of work against the Nationals on April 11.
Davidson has been in the MLB before and even has a World Series ring from last year’s championship team. In that game where he allowed five runs, Davidson had an 8.78 xFIP.
Meanwhile, Adrian Houser takes the mound for the Brewers. He’s been better recently, with a 4.23 xFIP in the last 30 days. However, he’s still earning fewer than 20% of strikeouts and giving up nearly 10% of walks.
Houser has a 3.86 ERA despite allowing 12 runs and seven earned runs in his last two starts against the Reds. In May, Houser has a 7.00 ERA with a 34.5 game score. A 50 for a game score is average.
Who has the more Favorable Lineup?
The Braves could have Ronald Acuña Jr. back in the lineup tonight. If he is added, the Braves would have an ISO of .173 with a .310 wOBA against righties in the last 30 days. Travis d'Arnaud has been special along with Travis Demeritte and Dansby Swanson. Of course, the elite sluggers between Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Marcell Ozuna are major threats as well.
Meanwhile, the Brewers have struggled a bit more against lefties this season. Only Hunter Renfroe is a real threat against lefties, with Andrew McCutchen still out due to a COVID-19-related illness.
Therefore, the Brewers will have some work cut out for them, but still, Milwaukee isn’t facing lefty Clayton Kershaw. They’re getting Tucker Davidson.
Braves vs. Brewers Game Prediction
The Braves' offense should get out to an early lead quickly. The Braves have so much power in their lineup and while Houser has only allowed one home run this season, he’s been allowing plenty of hits recently.
In his last nine innings, Houser has given up 13 hits, 12 runs, five walks, and has just nine strikeouts. That means he’s allowed 18 base runners in nine innings, which is a WHIP of 2.00 in May. If the Braves get a couple of guys on and take care of one mistake, the Braves will have a hefty lead early.
Meanwhile, Tucker Davidson isn’t going to pitch lights out and he’s nothing special. He’s basically an AAAA player if there ever was one. Knowing the Brewers have struggled against lefties as of late, I’ll give Davidson the benefit of the doubt, but would rather not worry about his stat line if I’m going to bet on this game.
Braves vs. Brewers Betting Pick
Therefore, I’ll be looking at betting the Braves in the first five on the team total. The Braves are listed at +125 to get over 2.5 runs in the first five innings.
That’s a very good price. The Braves should be able to get back on track offensively tonight against a struggling Houser and with Acuña potentially back in the lineup, the value just seems like a no-brainer.
I also think the Braves end up winning this game, but I’m not going to put my hard-earned money on Tucker Davidson. I don’t trust him just yet. Again, for your MLB pick, I’ll grab the Braves Over 2.5 in the first five on the team total.
Score Prediction: Braves 6, Brewers 4
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.