Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox
Wednesday, June 09, 2021 – 08:10 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Field
- Blue Jays: Alek Manoah (1-0, 3.86 ERA)
- White Sox: Lance Lynn (7-1, 1.23 ERA)
Stakes of the Matchup
On Wednesday night, the Chicago White Sox host the Toronto Blue Jays. Both teams are built very similarly in that they both have a strong youth core, strong lineups, and decent pitching. As a result, both teams are contenders this year.
The White Sox have been a pleasant surprise this season. After losing Eloy Jimenez due to injury at the beginning of the season, Chicago was expected to have a winning record but not win the division. However, after sixty games, the White Sox have a 37-23 record and are in first place in the AL Central. In last year’s sixty game season, the White Sox made the playoffs with a 35-25 record.
Currently the Chi Sox are on track to win 100 games. Their lineup averages 4.95 runs per game which is the third best in the league. Their win-loss record is not a fluke either as they have a +90 run differential which is the best in the league and means that on they win each game by 1.5 runs.
Toronto is much better than their 30-28 record suggests. They have a run differential of +31 which is the ninth best in the league and equates to a Pythagorean record of 32-26. Built on a lineup that is averaging 4.88 runs per game, the Blue Jays have a leading AL MVP candidate in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who currently leads the league with 18 home runs.
For Wednesday night’s game, the Chicago White Sox have a clear edge in the starting pitching matchup and that is why they are clear favorites. The White Sox are relying on Lance Lynn who is having another great season. Lynn has a 7-1 record with a 1.23 ERA and is averaging more than 5 2/3 innings per start.
However, he also has an xFIP of 4.08 which is almost three runs higher than his ERA. Even though Lynn is allowing less than two runs per nine innings, he should be allowing at least four runs per nine innings.
Opposing Lynn is rookie Alek Manoah who has a mixed record in two starts this season. In his MLB debut against the New York Yankees, Manoah pitched six scoreless innings and only allowed two hits and two walks. However, in Manoah’s last start he pitched against a woeful Miami Marlins team and did terribly.
Against a Marlins team that is averaging only 3.85 runs per game which is the 6th worst in the league, Manoah pitched for 3 1/3 innings and gave up three home runs and allowed four earned runs. If Manoah pitches as well as he did against the Yankees, Toronto probably wins. But if Manoah pitches as poorly as he did against Miami, then Chicago probably wins.
My model gives a slight edge to the Toronto Blue Jays for Wednesday’s game. As longshots against a pitcher in Lance Lynn who should regress, there is value in fading the White Sox in Lynn’s starts. However, I do not have the stomach to back Alek Manoah for my picks.
Luckily, my model sees a bigger edge in betting on the Blue Jays to score over 3.5 runs. The Blue Jays have a strong lineup, and it is hard to see how they cannot pile on at least four runs against Lance Lynn and the White Sox.
MLB Pick: Toronto Blue Jays Over 3.5 Runs (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.