Blue Jays vs. Twins MLB Predictions for August 5

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Jose Berrios #17 of the Toronto Blue Jays pitches against the Oakland Athletics. Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images/AFP.

The Toronto Blue Jays will take on the Minnesota Twins looking for their 60th win of the season. While these two teams aren’t in the same division, these games will potentially matter a little bit more when looking at the Wild Card in the American League. Who will get the win tonight?

Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks! Here are our picks and predictions for the Blue Jays and Twins game.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins

Friday, August 05, 2022 – 08:10 PM EDT at Target Field

What You Should Know

The Toronto Blue Jays will be looking for their 60th win of the season in a road game against the Minnesota Twins.

The Blue Jays will be fighting for a Wild Card spot in the American League while the Twins will be looking to stay in first place in the AL Central.

However, the Twins could ultimately fall in the AL Central, making this series against the Blue Jays very big for both teams when looking at the American League Wild Card standings.

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Who Is Pitching for the Blue Jays Today?

The Blue Jays will be sending out Jose Berrios for tonight’s game. Berrios has an 8-4 record with a 4.96 ERA on the year. He’s been inconsistent throughout the season but has ultimately looked much better in the last month on the mound.

In the last 30 days, Berrios has a 3.28 xFIP with 31.7% of strikeouts and 4.1% of walks. That’s really good stuff out of Berrios, but as we know, he could fold any second. His ERA is sitting at around five. We can’t forget that.

Who Is Pitching for the Twins Today?

On the other hand, Tyler Mahle will make his season debut for the Twins. He’s 5-7 with a 4.40 ERA on the season. However, like Berrios, he’s pitched much better as of late, holding a 3.77 xFIP in the last 30 days.

Mahle has also struck out 26.7% of batters in that time frame while earning 53.3% of ground balls.

Lineups Analysis

Toronto Blue Jays

  • The Blue Jays might be an all-right-handed lineup but they’ve been much better against righties, for whatever reason.
  • In the last 30 days, the Blue Jays are hitting a .184 ISO and wOBA of .347 against righties in that time frame.
  • They’ve also limited walks to 20.5% as a projected lineup and have a BABIP of .350 in the last 30 days against righties.
  • Teoscar Hernandez has been the hottest hitter against righties along with Matt Chapman.
  • The Blue Jays will also have Whit Merrifield in the lineup, which could ultimately be a big boost, especially on the road.

Minnesota Twins

  • The Twins have also hit righties well, hitting a .166 ISO and wOBA of .323 in the last 30 days.
  • Jorge Polanco has been the massive bat for the Twins against righties.
  • However, Jake Cave and Mark Contreras have shown some potential against righties early on.

The Blue Jays have the more favorable matchup but neither lineup should have insane success against two above-average pitchers.

Blue Jays vs. Twins: Game Prediction

Twins' Lineup Against Jose Berrios

Berrios has allowed a little bit of power to righties in the last 30 days, allowing a .171 ISO to his last 44 righties faced. The Twins should have more lefties than righties in the lineup, going up against Berrios, who is a right-handed thrower.

You won’t see many ground balls for Berrios, but he’s earning a ton of strikeouts right now while limiting walks. That’s all you can ask for from your starting pitchers. If they don’t give free passes and earn a ton of strikeouts, balls in play don’t mean as much.

Blue Jays' Lineup Against Tyler Mahle

Tyler Mahle will be pitching with his new team. He could have jitters and struggle early on. We can’t predict that. But recently, he’s been pitching extremely well, holding a 3.77 xFIP in the last 30 days.

Mahle will get a ton of strikeouts along with limiting walks. On top of that, he’ll induce ground balls and limit line drives more than Berrios will.

Still, righties have a .393 wOBA and ISO of .333 against Mahle in his last 20 plate appearances against righties. The Blue Jays clearly have the advantage, with the entire lineup being right-handed in tonight’s game.

MLB Betting Pick for Today

Although Mahle has been really good this season, he doesn’t match up well with the Blue Jays. He’s struggled against righties recently and the Blue Jays will have a full lineup of righties.

I’ll grab the Blue Jays for my MLB picks of the day. At -125, there’s value for the Blue Jays, even on the road.

Score Prediction: Blue Jays 5 - 2 Twins

MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (-125) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Blue Jays ML (-125)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.