Betting Implications of the MLB Rule Changes for Next Season

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Zack Wheeler #45 of the Phillies pitches during the 91st MLB All-Star Game. Dustin Bradford/Getty Images/AFP

It took 99 days, but the MLB finally has agreed to end the lockout. In the new bargaining agreement, there were many rule changes that took place.  

There will be an expanded playoff, a universal designated hitter and we’ll also see service manipulation derailed. On top of that, extra innings will go back to being normal with no runner on second base to start each inning after nine. We’ll also have nine-inning doubleheaders instead of seven-inning double-headers.  

In 2023, the MLB will start to ban shifts and have a pitch clock, but that’s not something you need to worry about this year.

Totals 

If you enjoyed betting on the over last season, it was likely due to the fact that there was always a runner on base in extra innings. That won’t be the case anymore. Therefore under won’t die in extra innings like they did last year.  

If you’re looking to bet the over, you might think about betting in the first five innings against a bad pitcher than betting the entire game and then hoping for multiple runs in a close game late or in extra innings.

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Also, in the NL, pitching will be more difficult than ever before. The DH is now in the National League. There’s no automatic out like a pitcher batting and instead, there’s a big bat in the lineup that can do damage offensively.  

Therefore, overs still seem like the play early, however, oddsmakers at top-rated sportsbooks will soon adjust to the new changes, and then unders could be the play, especially in full games due to the extra-inning rule of having a man on second eliminated.

Spread 

The level of competition should also be greater than before. That means, if you see a team that is +2.5 against the spread, that’s probably an interesting look. This year, we’ve seen teams like the Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers go out and sign some big names. It also looks like the other smaller teams could start to add some big pieces to its roster.

Without service manipulation, teams will be more inclined to put out their best team possible including prospects that have a ton of potential. Keep that in mind if you’re thinking about betting the spread in a game. Other than that, all of the rules are pretty much in place.

Pitching

Last year, the league used two different baseballs. One was juiced and one wasn’t. After that news leaked, I highly doubt that the MLB will let that happen again.  

I’d assume that we can be confident that the same balls will be used throughout the year. I’m also confident that pitchers won’t be able to cheat with sticky stuff again and that should also help even the playing field a bit as well.  

Of course, last year, the MLB cracked down on stick substance and told pitchers that they couldn’t use it. To really crack down on it, umpires had to inspect the pitcher before and after the pitcher went to the mound to pitch.  

So all in all, we’re going to have a more even playing field with a designated hitter on every team and extra innings rules scratched. Choose your MLB picks accordingly!