Sportsbooks have released their odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: the Blue Jays vs. Cardinals and Mets vs. Giants. For reasons that I will explain, you should play the total for the first game and the run-line for the second.
Feel free to parlay both bets at a top-rated sportsbook in order to maximize your profit.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Monday, May 23, 2022 – 07:45 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
Who Is Starting for Toronto?
It is too easy to look at Toronto starter Jose Berrios' season statistics and dismiss him unequivocally. We should be more forgiving towards Berrios given the quality of the opponents he has struggled against. He struggled twice against the Yankees who rank seventh in slugging against right-handed pitching.
His other bad starts came in the season opener, where he started the season flat, and in Cleveland, which ranks fifth in slugging against righty pitching. In his four other starts, against Boston twice, against the mighty Astros, and against Seattle he allowed a combined total of four earned runs.
Given the right matchup, Berrios is eminently reliable.
How Do Cardinal Batters Match Up With Berrios?
Cardinal batters match up poorly with Berrios' pitching repertoire. Primarily, Berrios throws a fastball, curveball, and sinker. These three pitches make up nearly 90 percent of his arsenal.
Berrios is yielding a 3.35 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) against right-handed batters. This statistic is crucial because the Cardinals own a very righty-heavy lineup. For example, top Cardinal hitters like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are right-handed.
St. Louis ranks 21st in slugging against these pitches from righties.
Who Is Starting for St. Louis?
Cardinal starter Miles Mikolas enjoys a nice level of variety in his arsenal. His favorite pitches are the slider, sinker, curveball, and fastball. He throws none of these pitches with as much as 30-percent frequency. While he is comfortable throwing all these pitches, his pitch selection is intelligent in the sense that he throws his best stuff most often.
His slider is his best pitch as it yields a .170 BA and .208 slugging rate and he throws it 29.5 percent of the time. With his strong pitching repertoire, Mikolas has been a model of consistency. This year, he has allowed over two earned runs in zero of eight starts.
Mikolas is well-proven, too. His success has come against opponents such as San Francisco and Milwaukee, both of which rank top-seven in runs per game.
How Do Toronto Batters Match Up With Mikolas?
Toronto will be an easier test for him as the Blue Jays rank 26th in runs per game. Moreover, Toronto is cold. The Blue Jays have scored more than three runs in none of their last five games.
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants
Monday, May 23, 2022 - 09:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
Who Is Starting for San Francisco?
Giant starter Alex Cobb is managing to build off what was the best season of his career last year. Last season, Cobb earned the best FIP by far of his career, 2.92. This season, his current FIP is 2.67. Cobb is more productive because his pitch quality is greater. Most notably, he has strongly improved the velocity of his pitches.
His two favorite pitches are his sinker and split-finger. These pitches make up about 85 percent of his arsenal. Cobb's sinker velocity has improved from 92.7 mph last year to 94.5 mph this year. As for his split-finger velo, this has improved from 87.5 mph last season to 89.4 mph this season. More velocity means less reaction time for opposing batters.
How Do Met Batters Match Up with Cobb?
Know for your MLB pick that Cobb had a tough-luck outing when he faced the Mets in their venue. In that start, his 6.23 ERA masked a 1.23 FIP. He yielded an unfortunately very high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite yielding barely any hard contact while inducing soft contact at a superbly high rate.
Cobb is sure to have more success at home where he has been a model of consistency. In four home starts, Cobb has allowed two earned runs or fewer.
Who Pitches for the Mets?
David Peterson, a southpaw, pitches for the Mets tonight. Peterson being left-handed is important because the Giants rank first in slugging against lefties in May. He primarily throws a fastball, changeup, slider, and sinker. These four pitches make up nearly 98 percent of his arsenal tonight.
I like Giant batters tonight because, on the season, they rank third in slugging against Peterson's favorite pitches from lefties. Lookout, for example, for Wilmer Flores who is slugging .493 at home.
Expect a pitching duel in St. Louis and a Giant blowout in San Francisco. For the above reasons, parlay the "under" between Toronto and St. Louis with the Giant run-line.
Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
- Blue Jays/Cardinals Under 8 (-110)
- Giants RL -1.5 (+145)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.