Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: the Red Sox vs. Angels and Mets vs. Padres.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the moneyline for the first game and the total for the second. Feel free to parlay both bets at a top sportsbook in order to maximize your profit.
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
Monday, June 06, 2022 – 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
Who Is Pitching for the Red Sox Today?
Boston is starting Michael Wacha tonight. By various statistical measures, Wacha is enjoying his best season in years.
He isn't doing anything too sexy. He isn't inducing more swinging strikes or generating more strikeouts. Wacha isn't throwing harder, either.
But Wacha is also not the kind of pitcher who accumulates strikeouts by blowing pitches past opposing batters.
Michael Wacha's Favorite Pitches
Primarily, Wacha throws a changeup and fastball. It is rare to see a pitcher whose most frequent pitch is his changeup, but Wacha is such a pitcher. By far, his changeup and fastball are his most frequent pitches.
One thing he does well is play both pitches off each other. They create a nice change of pace through their average 8.1 mph velocity differential. In addition to using this change of pace to keep hitters off-balance, he'll change their eye level by having his usually low changeup follow his typically high fastball.
Heat maps provide evidence of these locational tendencies. They also show his great control. He repeatedly locates pitches along the edges of the strike zone where it is more difficult for batters to make good contact. Hence, he has starkly reduced the rate at which opponents generate hard contact off his pitches.
Angels' Batters Against Wacha
Wacha promises to thrive tonight because, during their most recent hitting struggle, the Angels rank 27th in slugging .213 against Wacha's favorite pitches from righties.
Overall, L.A. is slumping. The Angels have lost 11 straight. They've scored one run or fewer in four of their last six games. The two exceptions did come most recently.
They scored 2 runs in their second-to-last game and 7 in their last game. But when they scored 7, they relied mostly on a fortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) against opposing starter Kyle Gibson whose 3.14 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows that he actually performed excellently against the Angels.
Who Is Pitching for the Angels Today?
L.A. starts Noah Syndergaard who has been a bad pitcher to back. The Angels are yielding -2.2 units in his starts.
"Thor" relies primarily on three pitches, his sinker, changeup, and fastball. One characteristic of his pitching is his higher velocity: his sinker and fastball both average 94 mph.
He will be more vulnerable to lineups who can handle his heat.
Red Sox' Batters Against Syndergaard
I like Red Sox batters tonight because they rank third in slugging against Syndergaard's favorite pitches and fifth in slugging against the 94 mph fastball and sinker. Plus, the Red Sox are hitting the ball well right now.
Currently, they enjoy a four-game win streak during which they've amassed 27 runs through consistent hitting.
Look out, for example, for Rafael Devers who brings a five-game hitting streak into tonight's contest. During this streak, Devers has accrued 3 doubles and one home run.
MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (+105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres
Monday, June 06, 2022 - 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
Who Is Pitching for the Mets Today?
New York starts Carlos Carrasco, who is a reliable pitcher. Before his last start, Carrasco yielded a sub-three FIP in three straight starts.
In his last start, Carrasco was unusually unsharp. But despite deviating from his usual sharpness and walking five batters, he allowed zero runs.
He will be sharper tonight because he is normally a pitcher who walks one or maybe two batters at most.
Padres' Batters Against Carrasco
Know for your best bets that Carrasco can still thrive even when he is not sharp because of his excellent pitching repertoire.
He relies primarily on a fastball, changeup, and slider, using them to earn, among other things, an elite chase rate.
Carrasco matches up well with Padres' batters as they rank 25th in slugging against his favorite pitches.
Who Is Pitching for the Padres Today?
San Diego starts Blake Snell who, after succeeding against a Cardinals' lineup that is normally elite against lefties, has established his footing in this season.
Snell will thrive tonight against a Mets' lineup that is significantly weaker away from home.
On the road, the Mets rank 27th in slugging .306 against Snell's favorite pitches from lefties.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-115) at BetOnline
MLB Parlay Verdict
For your MLB picks, expect the streaking Red Sox to defeat the slumping Angels while the Mets and Padres play a low-scoring game.
For the above reasons, parlay the Red Sox ML with the Mets/Padres Under.
Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
MLB Parlay Picks
- Red Sox vs. Angels: Red Sox ML (+105)
- Mets vs. Padres: Under 7.5 (-115)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+283) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.