BMR’s top-rated books have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Oakland vs. Detroit and Colorado vs. San Francisco.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the total for the first game and the run-line for the second.
Oakland Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers
Monday, May 09, 2022 – 07:10 PM EDT at Comerica Park
Paul Blackburn vs. Tiger Batters
Oakland starter Paul Blackburn is primed to bounce back in what has been, overall, a superb season for him. He is earning career-best strikeout and walk rates while his FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) has never been better for him.
Blackburn relies primarily on his fastball, curveball, changeup, and cutter. He'll thrive with this healthy mixture of pitches against a Detroit lineup that ranks last place by a wide margin in slugging against these pitches from righties.
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Team form is significant to consider because baseball games are played just about every day. A lineup will enter into a rhythm -- whether that's a positive rhythm or a negative rhythm -- when a consistent pattern of performance emerges.
Right now, the Tiger lineup is enduring a consistent pattern of not being able to produce runs. Detroit had scored two runs in four straight games before it was shut out in its last game.
The team leader in BA, Austin Meadows, rested yesterday due to an illness that renders him day-to-day. Even if he plays, he is partaking in Detroit's overall bad form. In May, his BA is .118, and his slugging rate .176.
Unlike Detroit's lineup, Tiger starter Michael Pineda enjoys fine form. His ERA in his last start creates a misleading impression of the quality of his performance.
He yielded an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play), which directly contributed to his high ERA. However, his 2.62 FIP indicates that he performed well.
Fortunately for Pineda, Oakland resembles Detroit's lineup in terms of suffering poor hitting form. Know for your MLB betting picks that the A's have scored a combined total of four runs in their past four games. They scored three of those runs in a single game.
Pineda will continue performing well today against the A's because he matches up well with them. He throws three pitches: a fastball, changeup, and slider.
His numbers indicate the extent to which he excels at avoiding hard contact. Perhaps the most important statistic is that the A's rank 29th in slugging against Pineda's three pitches from righties.
MLB Pick: Under 7 (-110) with BetOnline
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
Monday, May 09, 2022 - 09:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
Rockie starter Austin Gomber has found his groove. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last three starts while enduring at least six innings in each of them.
Two of those opponents rank in the upper half in runs per game. He faced one of those two opponents in the MLB's most hitters-friendly ballpark, Coors Field in Denver. Gomber's form is thus well-tested. Colorado's southpaw throws primarily a fastball-slider combo.
His fastball is more than serviceable as he rarely allows extra-base hits with it. The slider is Gomber's most dangerous pitch, though. It whiffs batters at a strong rate with its higher spin rate
Gomber vs. Giant Batters
I like Gomber tonight for tonight's MLB matchup because he matches up well against Giant batters. San Francisco ranks last place by a wide margin in slugging .210 against Gomber's two favorite pitches from lefties. Expect little from Joc Pederson, for example. He is 0-for-14 so far in May.
San Francisco starter Carlos Rodon may look scary to go against given his numbers. But he has benefitted from facing teams that he matches up well against.
He is a lefty who primarily throws a fastball and slider. These two pitches make up about 93 percent of his arsenal. Rodon has benefitted from facing Miami, Oakland, and Cleveland teams that rank bottom-10 in slugging against these two pitches from lefties.
Not a single one of his opponents has matched up well against him. Rodon's numbers will finally start to worsen because Rockie batters rank ninth in slugging against Rodon's pitches outside of Coors Field from lefties.
Look out, among others, for C.J. Cron. Cron has at least one hit in every game this month. He is 10-for-23 (.435 BA) in May with a .783 slugging rate.
MLB Pick: Rockies +1.5 (-110)
Parlay Betting Verdict
Expect lulling Tigers and Athletic lineups that match up poorly with the opposing starting pitcher to create a snooze fest while the Rockies have San Francisco on upset alert. For the above reasons, parlay the Tigers vs. Athletics under with the Rockies run-line for your MLB best bets.
- Oakland Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers Under 7 ( -110)
- Colorado Rockies +1.5 (-110)
Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.