Let’s stay up late like good degens and focus on the last game of today’s baseball card. Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. One game, in particular, interests me as worth investing in: the Guardians vs. Angels.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play spread and total for this game. Feel free to parlay both bets at online sports betting site in order to maximize your profit.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels
Wednesday, April 27, 2022- 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
Zach Plesac's Solid Star
Guardians' starter Zach Plesac is, by any objective measure, enjoying a strong season. He is yielding a 1.53 ERA through three starts. His most noteworthy success came against a Giant lineup that ranks second in runs per game.
Against the Giants, Plesac yielded two earned runs in 5.1 innings. It is true that the Angels rank similarly strong in runs per game. However, their scoring success has come primarily away from home.
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In Anaheim, the Angels are mustering 3.73 runs per game. An average -- by 2022 standards -- effort from Plesac will perpetuate L.A.'s tendency to score very few runs at home.
Plesac is a great example of a pitcher whose velocity decline should generate zero concern. Another current example of such a pitcher is Dodger Walker Buehler, whose velocity decline did not deter him from most recently shutting down Arizona.
While Plesac's velocity is down, his control has been superb and this is undeniably most important. In his career, his walk rate is 2.23 per nine innings. This year, however, Plesac is walking 1.02 per nine innings.
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As for his pitches, they are characterized primarily by a strong amount of vertical and horizontal movement relative to the same pitches thrown by other pitchers. The movement in his slider is a key part of its success. It generates a solid whiff rate while yielding a .133 slugging rate.
He'll employ this pitch pretty much only against same-handed batters, which spells bad news for Taylor Ward, Anthony Rendon, Mike Trout, and others. Against opposite-handed batters, Plesac favors his fastball, changeup, and curveball.
His changeup, too, has a lot of movement. His curveball is hardest to hit probably as a result of his stronger tendency to locate it low in or below the strike zone. These two pitches are classic weapons against left-handed batters.
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He, therefore, has the classic tools to deal with guys like Jared Walsh, Jo Adell, and Shohei Ohtani. Expect particularly little from Walsh, who is 0-for-6 in his career against Plesac.
Plesac is in a good spot because he is pitching in Angel Stadium tonight. In Anaheim, he is 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA in two career starts.
Several guys on Cleveland are fresh or fresh enough to pitch out of the bullpen. Many of these guys boast an ERA under 2.00. Look out for Trevor Stephan, for example, who has thrown eight scoreless innings this year.
Ohtani's High ERA
Shohei Ohtani's ERA is as high as it is because he suffered one catastrophic outing in Texas. In his two other starts, he allowed a combined total of one earned run in 10.2 innings against the Astros. In these two starts, he amassed 21 strikeouts to two walks.
Clevelands' Hitters Form
Ohtani's strong form plus Cleveland hitters' bad form will keep this game from getting too high-scoring. Make no mistake about it: GuardianS batters are struggling to produce runs.
Collectively, they have scored eight runs in their past five games. Four of those eight runs came in a single contest early in this span of games.
Ohtani vs. Guardians' Batters
However, Cleveland won't just keep scoring zero runs or one run. The Guardians will produce one of their stronger scoring outputs because they match up well with Ohtani. Ohtani throws three pitches with 19 percent or higher frequency, the split-finger, slider, and fastball.
Cleveland ranks number one in slugging against those pitches from righties. While they're cold, even during their cold streak they rank fifth in slugging .532 against these same pitches from righties. Since they will primarily see these pitches tonight, they will look like they've broken out of their slump.
Ryan Tepera is fresh for L.A. as are other quality guys. Aaron Loup is still fresh enough after knocking his ERA down to 1.04 last night. Oliver Ortega is also a fresh option with his 1.74 ERA.
MLB Pick: Guardians +1.5 (-125) with BetOnline
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-110) with BetOnline
Expect Cleveland to surprise people tonight who do not know about Plesac's improvement and about Guardian batters' success against Ohtani's pitches. For the above reasons, expect a low-scoring game where Cleveland is a live dog. Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
- Guardians +1.5 (-125)
- Under 7.5 (-110)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.