Sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for tonight’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Houston vs. Boston and San Francisco vs. Colorado. For reasons that I will explain, you should play the first-half total for the first game and the full-game run-line for the second.
Feel free to parlay both bets at a top-rated sportsbook in order to maximize your profit.
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox
Monday, May 16, 2022 – 7:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
Who Is Starting for Houston?
Astro starter Jake Odorizzi seems to be in fine form based on his most recent performances. However, it is difficult to attach much value to these performances given the quality of his opponents.
- Since getting blown up by the Angels he yielded a 40.50 ERA against them on April 20
- Odorizzi got to pitch in Texas, where the Rangers average 3.84 runs per game, before hosting a Seattle team that scores 3.26 runs per game away from home and a Tiger team that easily ranks dead-last in runs per game.
- Odorizzi is getting a much stiffer test tonight in a Boston team that has improved its OPS (on-base plus slugging) by .108 since April to May.
Odorizzi vs. Red Sox Batters
I dislike Odorizzi tonight because he has a terrible history in Boston's ballpark. In 11 career starts at Fenway, he suffers a 6.18 ERA. Tons of Boston batters have produced strong numbers against him. Five different ones slug well over .550 in at least eight career at-bats with Odorizzi on the mount.
Rafael Devers, for example, is 4-for-8 with three doubles in his career facing Odorizzi.
Who Is Starting for Boston?
Boston starts Garrett Whitlock today, although many consider him to be fit for reliever duties. Whitlock does not tend to pitch too many innings -- the most he has pitched in a game is five -- so our evaluation of Whitlock will justify only a first-half bet.
Whitlock vs. Astro Batters
- Primarily, Whitlock throws a sinker, slider, and changeup.
- These three pitches make up nearly 97 percent of his arsenal.
- I dislike Whitlock today because Houston ranks second in slugging .643 against these pitches from righties.
- Houston batters will thus ensure that the start to this game is a high-scoring one.
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Monday, May 16, 2022 - 08:40 PM EDT at Coors Field
Who Is Starting for San Francisco?
Giant starter Alex Wood might seem to be worth backing because he is coming off a strong start in which he thrived against the Rockies. However, he got to face them at home, which is important because the Rockies average a paltry 2.73 runs per game outside of Coors Field.
It's also important to note that Wood is facing the same team twice because this kind of rematch scenario did not go well for him before. On April 29, he surrendered five earned runs in five innings against the Nationals after getting the win through a much stronger performance against them in his previous start.
Wood vs. Rockie Batters
- Rockie hitters promise to do well tonight because Wood has a terrible history in their ballpark.
- In nine career starts at Coors Field, Wood suffers an 8.50 ERA.
- Moreover, Wood is disadvantaged by being left-handed tonight because the Rockies rank fourth in slugging against left-handed pitchers.
Two Colorado batters worth watching out for are C.J. Cron and Kris Bryant. Cron is 4-for-10 with a homer in his career facing Wood. Likewise, Bryant in his career is 4-for-9 with a double and a homer with Wood on the mound.
Antonio Senzatela vs. Giant Batters
Colorado starter Antonio Senzatela will be glad to return to Coors Field tonight where he is 2-0 on the season. Senzatela features a fastball-slider combo. These two pitches make up over 80 percent of his repertoire.
Know for your baseball picks that he is in a good spot tonight because the Giants rank 10th-to-last in slugging against these two pitches from righties.
Expect a high-scoring first five innings between the Astros and Red Sox while the Rockies have San Francisco on upset alert.
For the above reasons, parlay the Astros/Red Sox first-half over and the Rockies run-line. Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
MLB Parlay Picks
- Astros/ Red Sox First Half Over 4.5 (-120)
- Rockies +1.5 (-115)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.