Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: the Dodgers vs. White Sox and Red Sox vs. Angels.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the moneyline for both games. Feel free to parlay both bets at a top-rated sportsbook in order to maximize your profit.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox
Wednesday, June 08, 2022 – 08:10 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Field
Who Is Pitching for the White Sox Today?
Tonight, the White Sox start Johnny Cueto.
On the surface, Cueto seems to be a very reliable pitcher because he enjoys a good ERA right now. But it is hard to judge a pitcher after four starts -- tonight's start will be Cueto's fifth on the season.
In all reality, one can derive any basis for faith in Cueto tonight from his first two starts, which were strong ones. Most recently, Cueto has allowed 8 earned runs in his last two starts combined.
Johnny Cueto's Favorite Pitches
More deeply, the verdict is out on whether Cueto has improved this year because it is too early to assess the merit of Cueto's altered pitching repertoire.
To explain, Cueto is favoring his sinker more. Whereas he threw this pitch with 15.5% frequency last season, he is throwing it 31.3% of the time this season. It is his favorite pitch in terms of frequency.
Cueto seems to be performing well because opponents have produced minimal success against his favorite pitch. However, he has benefitted from facing softer matchups.
- In his first two starts, he faced teams -- the Royals and Yankees -- that rank in the bottom half in slugging against this pitch from righties.
- Conversely, his last two starts -- he struggled against the Cubs and Blue Jays -- came against teams that rank top 10 in slugging against this pitch from righties.
Dodgers' Batters Against Cueto
I like the Dodgers tonight because not only do they perform better against the sinker from righties than the Royals and Yankees, and than the Cubs and Blue Jays, but they also rank number one in slugging against this pitch from righties.
Look out, especially, for Cody Bellinger and Justin Turner. In at least 20 career at-bats against Cueto, Bellinger slugs .520 and Turner slugs .625.
Who Is Pitching for the Dodgers Today?
The Dodgers start Tony Gonsolin, who has yet to collect a loss this season. Currently, Gonsolin is 6-0.
Also, he enjoys superb form. In both of his last two starts, he has yielded a sub-two FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding).
White Sox Batters Against Gonsolin
Relative to last year, Gonsolin has injected more variety into his arsenal, and it is paying off.
He is relying less on his fastball and more on his split-finger and slider, which are yielding a .125 BA and .070 BA, respectively.
Gonsolin promises to thrive tonight because Chicago ranks 29th in slugging against his three favorite pitches from righties.
I also love the Dodgers tonight because they have a proud lineup that was shut out last night. L.A. will be particularly driven to bounce back tonight.
This season, the Dodgers are 5-0 after scoring one run or fewer in their previous game.
MLB Pick: Dodgers ML (-175) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
Wednesday, June 08, 2022 - 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
Who Is Pitching for the Red Sox Today?
The Red Sox start Nathan Eovaldi tonight who is an overrated pitcher. His attractive-looking 3.41 ERA masks a 4.83 FIP.
Most especially, he has benefitted from an unsustainably high 88.2% strand rate.
What to Expect From Eovaldi
One should expect Eovaldi to allow a lot of runs tonight because he is historically awful in the Angels' venue. In this venue, he suffers a 5.89 ERA in four career starts.
Moreover, Eovaldi is terribly unreliable in night games. His career ERA is 1.02 worse in night games than in day games. That is a massive difference.
As one must expect, he has been an awful bet in night games this season. Currently, Boston is yielding -4.8 units in the seven night games in which Eovaldi started.
Who Is Pitching for the Angels Today?
The Angels start Reid Detmers who is coming off 4.1 shutout innings in an unusually unsharp start in difficult Yankee Stadium.
Detmers relies primarily on a fastball and curveball. His pitch selection is intelligent because these two pitches are his most frequent ones, and they are reliable.
- Opponents hit .208 against his fastball and .192 against his curveball.
- He can locate his curveball anywhere in the strike zone, as heat maps show
- He also likes to play these two pitches off each other by elevating his fastball and then throwing his curveball low.
- These two pitches also enjoy a ridiculous 20 mph difference that keeps hitters off-balance.
I like Detmers tonight because, outside of its home ballpark, Boston slugs .326 against Detmers's favorite pitches from lefties.
MLB Pick: Angels ML (+148) at BetOnline
MLB Parlay Verdict
For your MLB picks, expect a strong bounce-back win from the Dodgers while the Angels will cruise past Boston.
For the above reasons, parlay the Dodgers ML with the Angels ML. Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
MLB Parlay Picks
- Dodgers ML (-175)
- Angels ML (+148)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+290) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.