Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Athletics vs. Angels and Dodgers vs. Giants.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the total for both games. Feel free to parlay these bets at one of our best sportsbooks in order to maximize your profit.
Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels
Wednesday, August 03, 2022 – 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
Who Is Pitching for the Athletics Today?
Oakland starts James Kaprielian today. On the season, Kaprielian has been a strong "Over" pitcher. However, this season-long tendency is eroding in his most reason starts.
Specifically, the "Under" is 3-2 in his last five starts. In the two "Overs," Oakland scored 7 and 14 runs, respectively.
As I will explain, it is extremely unlikely that Oakland approaches such a high-run total today.
Besides Oakland's normally weak hitting (the A's rank second-to-last in runs per game) Kaprielian's positive consistency largely explains why the "Under" has been more likely to hit in his recent starts.
Kaprielian's ERA is terrible right now because ERA is a season-long statistic, and it reflects his poor quality in June and May and two terrible starts that he suffered in these months. However, one must consider his most recent starts in order to see that his current form is obscured by this season-long statistic, ERA.
Most recently, he has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his past five starts. He is allowing fewer home runs and conceding fewer walks.
His improved command is also apparent in the enhanced rate at which he starts batters off with a strike. Statistically, a pitcher is vastly more likely to succeed in a given at-bat when he starts a batter off 0-1.
Kaprielian's Favorite Pitch
Moreover, Kaprielian's stuff is much better. In each of his last three starts, he has induced batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone at a rate that far exceeds his season average.
Especially, his fastball has improved. Opponents are hitting this pitch less often than they had been more and, likewise, are whiffing at it at a higher rate.
This pitch improvement is essential because the fastball is by far Kaprielian's most frequent pitch.
Kaprielian vs. Angels' Batters
Tonight, Kaprielian seems particularly likely to succeed given his solid history against the Angels.
In his career, he is 2-0 with a 1.02 ERA in three starts against them.
Who Is Pitching for the Angels Today?
Los Angeles starts Shohei Ohtani tonight. Despite repeatedly starting in games with lower-than-usual posted totals, Ohtani is more of an "Under" pitcher this year.
Overall, the "Under" is hitting in 56.3% of his starts. Pertinently to my best bet for this game, the "Under" is hitting in 66.7 percent of his starts at home.
Ohtani's Outlook Tonight
Ohtani is such a strong "Under" pitcher at home because he is at his best in his home venue. This year, his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is 1.94 at home compared to 2.87 on the road.
His form is anyhow terrific in general. He has allowed a combined total of 10 earned runs in his last eight starts. 6 of those allowed earned runs came in a single road start.
MLB Pick: Under 7 (-120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Wednesday, August 03, 2022 - 09:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
Who Is Pitching for the Dodgers Today?
Tonight, Julio Urias starts for Los Angeles. Urias is a very strong "Under" pitcher. The "Under" is hitting in 76.5% of his starts overall.
Moreover, it is hitting in 81.8% of his road starts and in 75% of his starts against division rivals.
Urias' Outlook Tonight
In his last three starts, the "Under" is 3-0 largely because of his great form. He has allowed a combined total of 3 earned runs in those three starts while lasting at least 6 innings in them.
His outlook is also promising because of his great history in San Francisco's venue. In seven career starts here, his ERA is 2.93.
Who Is Pitching for the Giants Today?
San Francisco starts the ever-reliable Alex Cobb. Cobb allowed one earned run or fewer in two of his last three starts.
While the one exception came against the Dodgers, his 2.06 FIP in that start reflects how well he actually performed individually.
In that start, he yielded an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite avoiding a lot of hard contact.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (+100) at BetOnline
MLB Parlay Verdict
With your MLB picks, expect pitching duels in Angel Stadium and Oracle Park.
For the above reasons, parlay the "under" between the A's and Angels and the "Under" between the Dodgers and Giants. Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
MLB Parlay Picks for Today
- Under 7 (-120)
- Under 7.5 (+100)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+267) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.