Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Phillies vs. Cardinals and Diamondbacks vs. Giants.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the moneyline for both games. Feel free to parlay both bets at one of our best sportsbooks in order to maximize your profit.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Monday, July 11, 2022 – 07:15 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
Who Is Pitching for the Phillies Today?
Philadelphia starts Aaron Nola tonight. On the season, Nola is Philadelphia's least profitable pitcher, but this fact shouldn't cause any concern because it is a product of the first two months of the season.
Philadelphia lost 8 of the first 9 games in which Nola started. While this initial flow of events affects Nola's current betting numbers, things have been looking much different for a long time now.
To be specific, Philly has won 6 of the last 8 games in which Nola started. High-quality victims during this most recent span of time include Atlanta, Milwaukee, and San Diego.
Aaron Nola: Pitcher Analysis
Nola's strong form contributes to Philadelphia's recent success in his starts. He has yielded a sub-two FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in 5 of his last 8 starts and a sub-three FIP in 6 of his past 8 starts.
His enhanced ability to get batters out has enabled him to last at least 7 innings in each of his last 6 starts.
Nola's stuff has been superb, which is why he has consistently been inducing batters to switch at pitches outside the strike zone at a high and higher rate. Overall, he ranks in the 84th percentile in chase rate.
In terms of achieving strikeouts, his curveball is his best pitch by whiff percentage. He typically keeps this pitch low in the strike zone, and it has a nice spin rate that keeps batters from tracking its location easily.
Perhaps more critically, he plays it very well off his fastball. His fastball averages about 14 more mph than his curveball, and he likes to elevate it.
So, he uses this two-pitch combo to alter the batter's eye level and to use a high-velocity differential to keep him off-balance.
Cardinals' Batters Against Aaron Nola
Nola's fastball and curveball combine for 58.2% of his arsenal. He also favors a sinker and changeup.
Nola achieves strong balance and variety in his arsenal, helping him stay unpredictable, by throwing these pitches between 15 and 32% of the time.
On top of enjoying supreme form, Nola faces an awfully cold lineup. St. Louis has scored a combined total of 9 runs in its past 8 games.
Who Is Pitching for the Cardinals Today?
St. Louis starts Miles Mikolas tonight. Mikolas is coming off a pair of poor starts in which he yielded a FIP over 6.
While it's possibly a tad too early in the month to speak of him as having a bad July, July is historically in his career his second-worst month in terms of FIP.
Plus, Mikolas matches up poorly against the Phillies. They rank eighth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
MLB Pick: Phillies ML (-111) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Monday, July 11, 2022 - 09:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
Who Is Pitching for the Diamondbacks Today?
Arizona starts Merrill Kelly tonight. Kelly will seem maximally familiar to the Giants because they just saw him in his last start.
This season, Kelly has already tried and failed to succeed twice in consecutive starts against the same team. On June 8, he dominated the Reds but then collected the loss after surrendering 5 earned runs to them on June 13.
Giants' Batters Against Merrill Kelly
Tonight's game presents a particularly negative outlook for Kelly because of he is historically awful in San Francisco's Oracle Park. He is 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA in four career starts here.
Among other Giant batters, look out for Wilmer Flores and Darin Ruf. Both are 3-for-7 in their career against Kelly. Flores also has a double and a homer.
Who Is Pitching for the Giants Today?
San Francisco starts Alex Cobb tonight. While Cobb just faced Diamondbacks, he suffered a tough-luck outing against them.
In this start, he yielded a 6.00 ERA and high opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite doing a superb job of limiting hard contact. His 2.60 FIP at that start reflects how well he actually performed.
Tonight, Cobb looks especially promising because of his form. He has yielded a sub-three FIP in each of his last 3 starts and in 5 of his last 6 starts, succeeding even against teams that match up well with him.
MLB Pick: Giants ML (-154) at BetOnline
MLB Parlay Verdict
With your MLB picks in mind, expect strong wins from Philadelphia and San Francisco.
For the above reasons, parlay both teams on the money-line. Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
MLB Parlay Picks for Today
- Phillies ML (-111)
- Giants ML (-154)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+214) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.