Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Mariners vs. Padres and Cardinals vs. Braves
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the run-line for both games. Feel free to parlay both bets at one of our best sportsbooks in order to maximize your profit.
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres
Monday, July 04, 2022 – 06:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
Mariners' Team Form
When betting on baseball, it is valuable to look at how a team has been performing even though starting pitchers rotate because the entire team can be affected in unison by the same rhythm.
While Seattle might therefore seem reliable because it has been doing a good job of winning games lately, one has to pay attention to its opponents. The Mariners have faced nothing but losing teams since June 16. They faced the Angels eight times, Oakland seven times, and Baltimore three times.
Today's game will mark a meaningful change for the Mariners in that they will finally face another winning team in San Diego.
Who Pitches for the Mariners Today?
Chris Flexen starts for Seattle. He is the team's second-least profitable pitcher. Flexen has been particularly costly to be back on the road and as an underdog.
Seattle is 2-6 and yields -3.6 units in road games in which Flexen has started. Moreover, the Mariners are 2-9 and yield -5.7 units in games in Flexen starts where they are listed as the underdog.
This year, Flexen is the subpar pitcher that one expects him to be. He is striking out two batters for every one he walks. His opposing home run rate is also poor.
Padres' Batters Against Chris Flexen
One reason why I dislike Flexen today is that he matches up poorly against Padres' batters.
Primarily, Flexen induces fly balls. San Diego, however, is at its best against fly-ball pitchers.
Whereas the Padres' OPS (on-base plus slugging) is .666 against ground-ball pitchers, it is .748 against fly-ball ones.
Chris Flexen History Against the Padres
Furthermore, Flexen's history against San Diego is terrible.
- He is 0-2 with a 21.21 ERA in two career starts against the Padres.
- Active Padres' batters are combined 10-for-18 in their career facing Flexen.
- Eric Hosmer is one Padres who is 2-for-2 lifetime against him.
Who Pitches for the Padres Today?
The Padres start Sean Manaea tonight.
Manaea is a lefty who primarily throws three pitches: his sinker, changeup, and slider. These three pitches combine to make up 98.9% of his arsenal.
He merits optimism tonight because Seattle ranks 26th in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
MLB Pick: Padres -1.5 (+115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves
Monday, July 04, 2022 – 07:20 PM EDT at Truist Park
Who Pitches for Cardinals Today?
St. Louis starts Dakota Hudson. Hudson will not try to blow heaters past opposing batters. He doesn't throw hard.
Likewise, he won't primarily try to induce batters to chase his pitches outside the strike zone. Instead, generally, he tries to induce batters to make weak contact with his pitches inside the strike zone. He does some things well enough to make him a reliable pitcher.
For example, he injects a strong level of variety into his arsenal by not throwing any one pitch 40% or more of the time.
Dakota Hudson's Favorite Pitches
Primarily, Hudson throws a slider and sinker. He throws both pitches between 29 and 38% of the time. He also mixes in a fastball and curveball frequently.
Moreover, he does a great job of varying the location of his pitches, as heat maps show. Thus, Hudson makes himself unpredictable while making full use of the strike zone with many different pitches that, despite lacking spin, generally have unusual levels of vertical movement.
His worst trait is his command, but there is no correlation between games in which he walks more batters and his win-loss record in those games.
Braves' Batters Against Dakota Hudson
What matters for Hudson is how he matches up with opposing batters.
Hudson merits optimism today because he is very clearly a ground ball pitcher. In terms of OPS, Atlanta is at its worst against ground ball pitchers.
Who Pitches for the Braves Today?
Atlanta starts Kyle Wright. Similar to Hudson, Wright is primarily a ground ball pitcher.
The Cards are reliable today because they are at their best against ground ball pitchers. Whereas their OPS is .754 against fly-ball pitchers, it is .801 against ground-ball ones.
MLB Pick: Cardinals +1.5 (-130) at BetOnline
MLB Parlay Verdict
For your MLB picks, expect strong wins from San Diego and St. Louis.
Due to the generous odds offered by sportsbooks for the run-line, we should take both teams on the run-line.
Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
MLB Parlay Picks
- Padres -1.5 (+115)
- Cardinals +1.5 (-130)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+280) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.