With a full slate of games on the horizon, we’ve put together the best moneyline, run line, and total for the Guardians vs. Twins, Rays vs. Yankees, and Dodgers vs. Padres.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins
Friday, September 9, 2022 – 08:10 PM EDT at Target Field
The AL Central is anyone’s to grab at this point. The Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins will play an essential three-game series over the weekend. The winner of this series will probably take over the division for the time being.
Cal Quantrill will get the start for the Guardians. He’s 11-5 with a 3.55 ERA on the season. In the last 30 days, the righty has a 4.80 xFIP but also has a BABIP of .190.
He’s limited line drives to 19.8% over the last month and continues to keep ISO power numbers down on both sides of the plate.
Meanwhile, the Twins are hitting a .128 ISO and wOBA of .298 with 21.6% of strikeouts. Minnesota isn’t getting much power out of their lineup recently, which is precisely what Quantrill has been good at limiting.
Dylan Bundy will get the start for the Twins. He’s 8-6 with a 4.34 ERA on the year. In the last 30 days, he’s got a 5.77 xFIP and has struck out just 10.1% of batters.
On the other hand, the Guardians have struck out 13.8% of the time against righties over the last 30 days with their projected lineup.
The Moneyline Pick
Cleveland still has a .100 ISO and wOBA of .276, but they’ve got much more potential because we know they’ll at least put the ball in play against a pitcher with an xFIP of nearly 6.
Take the Guardians on the moneyline.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Friday, September 9, 2022 - 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
Tampa Bay Rays
Drew Rasmussen is back on the mound for the Rays. If Tampa Bay wants to get closer in the AL East, Rasmussen will have to pitch well against the New York Yankees in the first game of the series.
Rasmussen is 9-4 with a 2.70 ERA on the season. In the last 30 days, the righty has a 3.53 xFIP with 30.4% of strikeouts recorded. He’s also walked just 2.2% of batters and has allowed a BABIP of .183.
He will take on a Yankees lineup with an ISO of .144 and a wOBA of .264 against righties in the last 30 days. Only Aaron Judge has been consistently hitting righties for the Yankees in the previous 30 days.
New York Yankees
Frankie Montas will get the call with the Yankees. Montas is 5-11 with a 3.79 ERA but has been much better as of late.
In the last 30 days, Montas has had a 3.76 xFIP with 21.2% of strikeouts and 3.4% of walks. He’s finally starting to pitch like a number two pitcher and has earned 47.1% of ground balls over the last 30 days.
There’s been chatter that Wander Franco could return for the Rays in tonight’s lineup. I’m not buying it. The Rays, without Franco, have a .129 ISO with 21.4% of strikeouts. Only Yandy Diaz and Randy Arozarena have had above-average numbers against righties.
The Over/Under Pick
For my MLB picks, I’m riding the Under in this exciting pitching matchup.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-115) at BetOnline
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Friday, September 9, 2022 - 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
San Diego Padres
The Padres will send out Mike Clevinger for tonight’s game against the Dodgers. Clevinger has a 5-6 record with a 3.96 ERA.
However, things haven’t been nearly as smooth as they look. Clevinger has a 6.90 xFIP in the last 30 days with 14.3% of strikeouts and 11.4% of walks. He’s also induced just 31.6% of ground balls and is giving up 50% of fly balls and 42.1% of hard contact.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers are hitting a .207 ISO with a wOBA of .337 against righties over the last 30 days and have walked 10.3% of the time during that period.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dustin May will get the start for the Dodgers. May is 1-2 with a 3.94 ERA but has still struck out 27.3% of batters while earning 54.1% of ground balls.
May also has limited line drives and hard contact in the last month and only has to worry about Manny Machado in the San Diego lineup. After all, Machado is the only one consistently producing against righties.
The Run Line Pick
I’ll take the Dodgers at -1.5 with May on the mound.
MLB Pick: Dodgers RL -1.5 (+100) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.