With a full slate of games on the horizon, we’ve put together the best moneyline, run line, and total for the Reds vs. Cubs, Marlins vs. Phillies, and White Sox vs. Athletics.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Thursday, September 8, 2022 – 02:20 PM EDT at Wrigley Field
Luis Cessa will take the hill for the Reds. He has a 3-2 record with a 5.18 ERA on the season.
Cessa has been better as of late, holding a 4.69 xFIP in the last 30 days. However, he’s only striking out 16.4% of batters while allowing 22.5% of line drives in that time frame. On top of that, Cessa has given up 55% of hard contact and has allowed an ISO of .310 to righties in the last 30 days.
The Cubs have six righties in the lineup, including Franmil Reyes, who has a .185 ISO, and Cristopher Moral, who has a .192 ISO in the last 30 days. Ian Happ will be batting from the left side, but he has a .321 ISO with a wOBA of .381 against righties. He’s also got plenty of potential offensively in this game.
Adrian Sampson will take the hill for the Cubs. Sampson has a 4.55 xFIP with 18.8% of strikeouts in the last 30 days. He’s just 1-5 with a 3.95 ERA on the season.
Sampson has dominated lefties but has struggled against righties. Righties have hit a .427 wOBA and ISO of .220 in the last 46 plate appearances against Sampson.
However, righties in the Cincinnati lineup have combined to hit a .112 ISO with a wOBA of .266 against righties. It’s the lefties in the Reds’ lineup that have done well.
The Moneyline Pick
Sampson has pitched well against lefties over the last month on the mound. I’ll back the Cubs at -140 at home in this one.
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Thursday, September 8, 2022 - 06:45 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
We’re going to get another Sandy Alcantara to start tonight. These are fun. After putting together an incredibly dominant season, he will win the NL Cy Young this year.
He should continue his success against Philadelphia. The Phillies have a .122 ISO with a .317 wOBA against righties in the last 30 days. They’ve also struck out 20.8% of the time in that time frame while walking just 8.5% of the time.
Alcantara is allowing more righties to get on base than usual, but he’s still earning a lot of grounders while limiting line drives over the last 30 days.
Kyle Gibson will get the call for the Phillies. Gibson has struck out 24.6% of batters in the last 30 days but has struggled against lefties, giving up a .440 ISO with a wOBA of .237.
However, he’s been terrific against righties and will mainly face righties in the Miami lineup. After all, the Marlins are hitting a .123 ISO and wOBA of .286 against righties in the last 30 days with their projected lineup.
Miami might be able to walk and get on base a little bit, but this lineup hasn’t been clutch all second half. Gibson also has a BABIP of .384 over the last 30 days, and that number should gradually come down as we approach the end of the season.
The Over/Under Pick
Give me the Under 7 in this one.
MLB Pick: Under 7 (-105) at BetOnline
Chicago White Sox vs. Oakland Athletics
Thursday, September 8, 2022 - 09:40 PM EDT at Oakland Coliseum
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox will get to face a lefty tonight in JP Sears. That means Chicago will send out nine righties to take on Sears, and they’ve already been hot as it is.
The White Sox’ projected lineup is hitting a .205 ISO with a wOBA of .385 in the last 30 days against lefties. Meanwhile, Sears has a 5.35 xFIP with under 15% of strikeouts.
The White Sox should be able to work walks, hit for solid contact, and have legitimate success against Sears.
Chicago White Sox
Dylan Cease will get the call for the White Sox. Cease is trying to steal the AL Cy Young award and could do that with another monster performance tonight.
The Athletics are hitting a .138 ISO and wOBA of .309 in the last 30 days against righties with 24.4% of strikeouts.
The Run Line Pick
Cease should end up racking up the strikeouts in a win by multiple runs.
MLB Pick: White Sox RL -1.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.