With a full slate of games on the horizon, we’ve put together the best moneyline, run line, and total for the White Sox vs. Mariners, Guardians vs. Royals, and Mets vs. Pirates.
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Monday, September 5, 2022 – 06:40 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
The Chicago White Sox will take on a lefty in Marco Gonzales in tonight’s game. Marco Gonzales has a 4.42 xFIP with just 12.3% of strikeouts in the last 30 days.
Tonight, he’ll take on a White Sox lineup with a wOBA of .399 against lefties. This same lineup has struck out just 12.2% of the time against lefties and should have all righties going up against the lefty.
Gonzales has been worse against righties, allowing a wOBA of .330 in his last against them.
Chicago White Sox
Lance Lynn will man the mound for the White sox. He’s been so much better in the last 30 days, holding a 3.69 xFIP with 28.3% of strikeouts and 2.5% of walks. Lynn has also kept line drives down to 16.3% in the last 30 days.
His ISO power has increased against lefties, but the number is at .167, which isn’t all so bad. After all, the Mariners’ projected lineup is hitting a .297 wOBA against righties in the last 30 days with a BABIOP of .236.
The Moneyline Pick
With that said, the White Sox clearly have the advantage in tonight’s game with their offense and starting pitcher.
Lynn has been inconsistent this season, but in the last month of baseball, he’s turned it on. You can also say the same about this White Sox lineup.
So grab the White Sox at -120.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals
Monday, September 5, 2022 - 08:10 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
The Cleveland Guardians have developed Triston McKenzie. McKenzie will get the ball in tonight’s game. He is 9-11 with a 3.18 ERA on the season. In the last 30 days, the righty has a 3.31 xFIP with 29.8% of strikeouts and 5.8% of walks. He’s been sensational for this team as they fight for a playoff spot.
Lefties and righties don’t have a high wOBA against McKenzie, and ISO power numbers have been down against him too.
The Royals are hitting a .131 ISO with a wOBA of .279 against righties in the last 30 days. They’ve also struck out 23.3% of the time in that time frame and have only walked 7.3% of the time.
Kansas City Royals
Brady Singer will get the call for the Royals. Singer has a 7-4 record with a 3.33 ERA this season. In the last 30 days, he’s holding a 4.12 xFIP with 24.2% of strikeouts and 6.5% of walks. He’s also induced 47% of ground balls in that time frame.
Like McKenzie, Singer has kept his wOBA and ISO down in the last 30 days to both sides of the plate. He’ll also take on a Guardians lineup with a .096 ISO and wOBA of .286 against righties in the last 30 days.
The Over/Under Pick
Both of these pitchers should be good tonight. I’d expect both to earn quality starts. I’ll take the Under for my MLB picks.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-125) at BetOnline
New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Monday, September 5, 2022 - 12:35 PM EDT at PNC Park
The Mets will take on Mitch Keller, who has a 4.43 xFIP in the last 30 days with nearly 10% of walks. He’s also allowed 41.5% of hard contact in the last 30 days.
The Mets are still hitting a wOBA of .357 against righties in the last 30 days and have hut over 25% of line drives with their projected lineup.
New York Mets
The New York Mets lost two straight games to the Washington Nationals, at home, over the weekend. So now the Mets are just -1.5 at -130 against the Pirates? Give me a break.
Taijuan Walker hasn’t been on his A-game recently, but against Pittsburgh, he’ll be able to rack up the strikeouts and put them away pretty easily.
The Pirates are hitting a .098 wOBA with an ISO of .244. Pittsburgh has struck out 29.8% of the time against righties in the last 30 days.
The Run Line Pick
Let’s take the Mets at -1.5 in this early game. The Mets are way better than -205 on the moneyline. C’mon!
MLB Pick: Mets RL -1.5 (-130) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.