We’ve put together our favorite three bets for the night with a full slate of games on the horizon. Let us know if you’re tailing these bets!
There are plenty of intriguing matchups for tonight’s MLB slate. Find out where I see value below.
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Friday, September 30, 2022 – 07:20 PM EDT at Truist Park
New York Mets
I will not bore you guys with games that don’t matter. The Braves and Mets will start a three-game series in Atlanta, with the Mets up one game in the NL East division.
The Mets will pitch Jacob deGrom for tonight’s game against the Braves. This way, if the Mets need him for the final game of the season on Wednesday, they’ll have him.
DeGrom has a 2.93 ERA on the season but has an xFIP of 2.51 over the last 30 days. He’s struck out 39.1% of batters and limits line drives when balls are hit against him.
On the other hand, Max Fried will get the call for the Braves. The lefty is 13-7 with a 2.50 ERA on the season. He’s also holding a 3.92 xFIP over the last 30 days with 28.6% of strikeouts.
Fried, like deGrom, has limited walks and line drives over the last 30 days but will take on a Mets lineup with a .216 ISO and wOBA of .382 against lefties over the last 30 days.
Atlanta has struck out 23.9% of the time against righties in the last 30 days, despite hitting a .226 ISO and wOBA of .318.
The Moneyline Pick
The Mets also called up Francisco Alvarez, the number one prospect in baseball. Alvarez is a right-handed slugger who could debut in tonight’s lineup at DH.
Only Jeff McNeil has struggled to hit lefties in the last 30 days for the Mets. However, he’s struck out just 4.4% of the time against lefties in those same 30 days.
He’s at least putting the ball in play. I’ll take the Mets at -130. How many times will you get deGrom at -130?
MLB Pick: Mets ML (-130) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Friday, September 30, 2022 - 08:10 PM EDT at American Family Field
Last year’s Cy Young winner will take on the likely Cy Young winner this season in the National League. Corbin Burnes won the NL Cy Young last season and will now take on Sandy Alcantara in tonight’s game.
Meanwhile, the Brewers have struck out 25.3% of the time against righties and should whiff a lot more after whiffing on yesterday’s game that would’ve put them in the final spot of the Wild Card in the NL.
Burnes has a 3.11 ERA on the season and a 3.23 xFIP in the last 30 days. He’s struck out 27.5% of batters and keeps walking down while inducing over 55% of grounders.
Alcantara has gone 14-8 with a 2.32 ERA on the season. He’s got a 3.62 xFIP over the last 30 days and has struck out over 23% of batters in that time frame.
The Over/Under Pick
Milwaukee is hitting a .155 ISO and wOBA of .306 in the last 30 days against righties.
Miami’s projected lineup is hitting a .102 ISO and wOBA of .273 with 23.2% of strikeouts against righties over the last 30 days.
Don’t count on Miami to come through offensively tonight. Let’s take the under.
MLB Pick: Under 6 (-105) at BetOnline
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers
Friday, September 30, 2022 - 07:10 PM EDT at Comerica Park
Joe Ryan will get the start for the Twins tonight. The rookie right-hander had an impressive campaign with a 12-8 record to go along with a 3.70 ERA.
In the last 30 days, he’s struck out 26.5% of batters while allowing 15.9% of line drives.
Jose Miranda, Carlos Correa, and Gio Urshela have hit lefties very well over the last 30 days. Other righties in the lineup have some potential too.
On the flip side, Tyler Alexander will take the mound for the Tigers. He’s 4-10 with a 4.68 ERA on the season.
In the last 30 days, Alexander has had a 5.54 xFIP with 15.5% of strikeouts.
He’s allowed a high ISO to lefties and righties over the last 30 days. He’ll mainly have to face righties as a left-handed pitcher, which won’t be good news.
The Run Line Pick
The Tigers’ projected lineup is hitting a .132 ISO with a wOBA of .276. They rarely walk and rarely hit line drives.
Gilberto Celestino has hit 35.7% of line drives in 22 plate appearances against lefties. So let’s face Alexander and take the Twins to win on the runline against Detroit tonight.
MLB Pick: Twins -1.5 (+120) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.