We’ve put together our favorite three bets for the night with a small slate of games on the horizon. Let us know if you’re tailing these bets!
There are plenty of intriguing matchups for tonight’s MLB slate. Find out where I see value below.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Thursday, September 29, 2022 – 06:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field
Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays have 85 wins on the year. They won’t win the American League East but still have a good chance of earning a Wild Card spot.
Meanwhile, the Guardians locked up the AL Central and don’t have much to play for at the moment.
Jeffrey Springs will take the mound for the Rays. He’s a left-handed pitcher with a 9-4 record to go along with a 2.56 ERA.
In the last 30 days, Springs has a 4.75 xFIP but has still struck out 24.1% of batters while also walking just 6.5%. Lefties have done more damage than righties over the last 30 days.
The Guardians will have eight righties to go up against Springs in their lineup. Those righties have a .098 ISO against lefties in the previous 30 days.
On the other hand, Cal Quantrill will take the mound for the Guardians. He is 14-5 with a 3.49 ERA on the year.
However, he’s still holding a 4.81 xFIP over the last 30 days with 18.6% of strikeouts.
Righties have a .387 wOBA through their last 71 plate appearances against Quantrill.
The Moneyline Pick
The righties in the Rays’ lineup have a .306 wOBA against righties.
It’s not a ridiculous number, but it’s good enough to prove that the Rays can score a couple of runs on Quantrill tonight.
As long as the Rays can limit strikeouts, good things will happen.
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
Thursday, September 29, 2022 - 09:40 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
Jon Gray will take the hill for the Rangers tonight. He’s been consistent all year, holding a 7-7 record with a 3.64 ERA.
In the last 30 days, he’s also got an xFIP under four, earned a high amount of ground balls, and given up a low number of line drives.
However, the Mariners have dominated against righties recently, hitting a .242 ISO with a wOBA of .348 in the last 30 days using their projected lineup.
The Mariners are still fighting for an American League Wild Card and will have their best lineup.
On the other hand, Marco Gonzales will take the hill with his 4.05 ERA. He’s holding an xFIP of 5.59 with just 12% of strikeouts over the last 30 days.
Lefties have a high wOBA against Gonzales, while righties have a high ISO against Gonzales.
The Over/Under Pick
The Rangers still have five batters hitting a high wOBA against lefties in their lineup despite 27.7% of strikeouts.
But against Gonzales, the Rangers won’t strike out nearly that much. Therefore, I’ll take the Over.
MLB Pick: Over 7 (-110) at BetOnline
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
Thursday, September 29, 2022 - 09:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
San Francisco Giants
Carlos Rodon will look to keep his ERA below 3.00 heading into his second to the last start of the season. Rodon has a 2.98 ERA on the year.
He’s also holding an xFIP of 3.59 and has struck out 37.6% of batters in the last 30 days. Plus, he’s taking on a weaker Rockies lineup on the road.
On the other hand, Ryan Feltner will get the call. He’s a righty with a 5.17 xFIP over the last 30 days. He even has a 5.91 ERA on the season.
Feltner has struggled with righties, allowing a .388 wOBA and ISO of .212 to his last 57 righties. Still, lefties have been able to hit more line drives against Feltner, despite having a lower ISO.
The Run Line Pick
San Francisco has a .346 wOBA and has hit nearly 26% of line drives against righties in the last 30 days.
Joc Pederson has a .265 ISO with a wOBA of .378 in the last 30 days. Mike Yastrzemski has a .293 ISO, and JD Davis has a .261 ISO in that same 30-day time frame. Jason Vosler also has a high ISO and wOBA against righties.
The Giants have a lot of offensive potential tonight, with Carlos Rodon on the mound. Therefore, I’ll take the Giants at -1.5 in tonight’s game.
MLB Pick: Giants RL -1.5 (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.