We’ve put together our favorite three bets for the night with a full slate of games on the horizon. Let us know if you’re tailing these bets!
There are plenty of intriguing matchups for tonight’s MLB slate. Find out where I see value below.
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Wednesday, September 28, 2022 07:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees won the AL East last night with a win over the Blue Jays. They’ll take on the Blue Jays again after celebrating.
Usually, most people would talk about a team being hungover. But I’m not thinking that way. I’m thinking about Gerrit Cole going up against Mitch White.
It’s a massive mismatch between pitchers, yet, the game is nearly a pick-em. Cole is 12-7 on the season with a 3.49 ERA. He’s had his bad games mixed in with some excellent performances.
In the last 30 days, Cole has had a 3.58 xFIP with 35.8% of strikeouts. He’s also limited line drives to 18.8% but has allowed some power to lefties and righties recently. That’s usually what gets him.
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto is only getting consistent power out of Bo Bichette, Matt Chapman, and Danny Jansen. The rest of the lineup has been relatively quiet.
Meanwhile, Mitch White will man the mound for the Blue Jays. White is 1-6 with a 5.12 ERA on the season. He also has a 5.24 xFIP over the last 30 days and has struck out 14.3% of batters.
Righties are hitting a .413 wOBA with an ISO of .195. Lefties also have a .326 wOBA and ISO of .172. His numbers against righties are pretty bad.
Aaron Judge is looking for his 61st home run of the season and, along with Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres, matches up well against White. I like the Yankees to earn the road win for today's MLB pick.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Houston Astros
Wednesday, September 28, 2022 - 08:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
We’ve got one of the most exciting pitching matchups that we’ll see this season. It’s Justin Verlander against Zac Gallen.
Verlander is 17-4 with a 1.82 ERA on the season. He will win the AL Cy Young after his season with the Astros, coming off an injury.
Verlander has a 3.37 xFIP over the last 30 days with 33.3% of strikeouts. He’s kept walks down, wOBA down, and ISO down and will take on a Diamondbacks lineup that has struck out 23.6% of the time.
On the other hand, Zac Gallen has a 12-3 record with a 2.46 ERA on the season. Imagine having just three losses to your name in a year where your team has a losing record. That’s unreal.
Gallen has a 2.92 xFIP over the last 30 days and has struck out 35.9% of batters in the previous 30 days. He also has a BABIP of .188 with low walks, and low line drives allowed.
The Astros will likely be without Jeremy Pena and Yordan Alvarez, as both are injured. Therefore, I’ll take the low under of 6.5 in this game.
MLB Pick: Under 6.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
Wednesday, September 28, 2022 - 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
New York Mets
The Mets took a 6-4 loss to the Marlins last night. That allowed the Braves to tie up the Mets in the NL East with 98 wins.
Tonight, New York will take on Jesus Luzardo, a lefty pitcher. He’s allowed 28.4% of line drives and has induced just 35.1% of ground balls.
He’s getting 28% of strikeouts over the last 30 days, but the Mets have limited strikeouts to 18.6% against lefties in that same time frame.
If the Mets can put the ball in play against Luzardo, they’ll have a lot of line drives and hard hits. They’re hitting a .200 ISO with a wOBA of .361 against lefties as a projected lineup.
Meanwhile, Taijuan Walker is hit or miss with the Mets. He’s walked 6.3% of batters but isn’t earning a high amount of strikeouts.
However, Walker does have games where he’s put the Marlins away with double-digit strikeouts. Miami’s lineup is hitting a .126 ISO with a wOBA of .269 against righties.
They’ve also struck out 23.6% of the time. I like the Mets to take care of business tonight as they prepare for the Braves on Friday.
MLB Pick: Mets -1.5 (+115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.