We’ve put together our favorite three bets for the night with a full slate of games on the horizon. Let us know if you’re tailing these bets!
There are plenty of intriguing matchups for tonight’s MLB slate. Find out where I see value below.
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Tuesday, September 27, 2022 – 06:40 PM EDT at Comerica Park
Kansas City Royals
The Kansas City Royals will take on the Detroit Tigers tonight. This game has no playoff implications. Both teams are 60-win teams with no playoff hopes. Anyway, there’s still value here.
Zack Greinke will take the mound for the Royals. He’s 4-9 with a 4.21 ERA on the season. In the last 30 days, Greinke has walked just 5.9% of batters while earning nearly 52% of ground balls.
He will face a Tigers lineup with a .157 ISO, wOBA of .301, and 24.1% of strikeouts against righties over the last 30 days.
Greinke isn’t a heavy strikeout pitcher, but he should be able to get through a lineup with just three batters hitting above-average numbers over the last 30 days against righties.
On the flip side, it’ll be Joey Wentz on the mound for the Tigers. Wentz is 2-2 with a 3.13 ERA. However, in the last 30 days, Wentz has a 4.80 xFIP and has allowed 46.5% of fly balls.
He’s also induced 39.5% of grounders and has been lucky with a .163 BABIP. That’s not going to last. Lefties are hitting a .398 wOBA and ISO of .308 in their last 14 plate appearances against Wentz.
The Moneyline Pick
In the Royals lineup, there are only three lefties, but those lefties have combined to hit a .193 ISO and wOBA of .417 against righties in the last 30 days.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs
Tuesday, September 27, 2022 - 07:40 PM EDT at Wrigley Field
We’ve got an intriguing matchup in Chicago. The Cubs only have 67 wins and won’t be playing baseball in two weeks. However, the Phillies hope to hold on to a Wild Card spot in the National League.
Philadelphia is 83-69 on the year and currently holds an NL Wild Card spot. They’ll want to keep it that way.
Zack Wheeler will take the mound for the Phillies. He has an 11-7 record with a 2.98 ERA on the season. He returned on September 21 against Toronto and faced 14 batters through four innings.
He allowed 2 hits and struck out 3 while allowing no runs. He cruised through those four innings in that game, getting over 80% of ground balls. He also walked none. Wheeler has been looking sharp since returning.
Meanwhile, the Cubs will pitch Marcus Stroman. Stroman has a 4.62 xFIP over the last 30 days, but he walked just 5.1% of batters.
He’s also induced nearly 50% of grounders while allowing only 17.6% of line drives.
Philadelphia has hit 45% of grounders against righties in the last 30 days and under 20% of line drives against righties in that same time frame.
The Over/Under Pick
Look for Wheeler to earn a bunch of strikeouts, while Stroman should induce many ground balls. Take the under.
MLB Pick: Under 7 (-110) at BetOnline
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Houston Astros
Tuesday, September 27, 2022 - 08:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
The Astros will pitch Lance McCullers, who has a 4-1 record with a 2.38 ERA on the season. The righty also has a 3.66 xFIP over the last 30 days with over 30% of strikeouts.
He’ll take on an Arizona lineup that has struck out nearly 23% of the time against righties. The top of the lineup has potential, but the bottom portion will be a rally killer.
Meanwhile, Zach Davies will get the call for the Diamondbacks. He has a 5.23 xFIP over the last 30 days with high walks, low ground balls, and strikeouts.
Lefties have a wOBA of .358 and ISO of .259 in the last month against Davies, while righties have a .369 wOBA against Davies in the previous month.
The Run Line Pick
Houston has limited strikeouts to 18.8% and should put the ball in play at a high rate. Davies is allowing 45.1% of hard contact and is getting under 44% of grounders.
Therefore, we’ll see some hard-hit line drives against Davies out of this Houston lineup. Take the Astros on the runline.
MLB Pick: Astros -1.5 (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.