Best Moneyline, Run Line and Total for September 26

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Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees reacts from second base after hitting a double during the 1st inning of the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Jamie Squire/Getty Images/AFP.

We’ve put together our favorite three bets for the night with a small slate of games on the horizon. Let us know if you’re tailing these bets!

There are plenty of intriguing matchups for tonight’s MLB slate. Find out where I see value below.

I gave out my favorite moneyline, total, and run line bets for the slate! Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks!

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Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox

Monday, September 26, 2022 – 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park

Team Analysis

Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles will be looking for win number 80 tonight in Fenway Park. Jordan Lyles will take the hill for Baltimore with an 11-11 record to go along with a 4.50 ERA.

Lyles has a 4.93 xFIP over the last 30 days and struck out just 14.6% of batters in that time frame.

However, Lyles has also limited walks to 5.2% while earning 49.3% of ground balls. The right-hander has also allowed a BABIP of .211 in those 30 days.

Boston Red Sox

Meanwhile, the Red Sox have hit 48.6% of ground balls with under 20 % of line drives against righties in the last 30 days. Boston isn’t getting much help from the top of the order.

Tommy Pham and Rafael Devers have struggled against righties. Meanwhile, J.D. Martinez and Kike Hernandez haven’t been any better.

On the flip side, Connor Seabold will get the start for Boston. He’s 0-3 with a 10.47 ERA on the season. In the last 30 days, Seabold has a 5.96 xFIP through his last 22 batters faced.

Seabold has allowed 25% of line drives and is inducing 25% of ground balls in the last 30 days.


The Moneyline Pick

The Orioles are hitting 38.3% of ground balls and 22.3% of line drives.

Seabold isn’t a heavy strikeout pitcher, and if Baltimore can put the ball in play, the Orioles should earn enough base hits and RBIs to win this game.

MLB Pick: Orioles ML (+110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Orioles ML (+110)
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New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Monday, September 26, 2022 - 07:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre

Team Analysis

Toronto Blue Jays

Per MLB.com, the probable starters haven’t been announced yet. However, we’ll likely see Luis Severino of the Yankees go up against Kevin Gausman of the Blue Jays.

Gausman has a 3.03 xFIP with 30.7% of strikeouts over the last 30 days. He’s also walked just 3.9% of batters in that time frame.

The right-hander has allowed 23.2% of line drives and is only inducing 41.5% of grounders. He’s also allowed a wOBA of .355 and ISO of .263 against his last 834 righties.

That’s good news for Yankees fans. Aaron Judge is a righty with a .526 ISO and wOBA of .592 against righties over the last 30 days.

New York Yankees

As a team, the Yankees are hitting a .209 ISO with a.342 wOBA over the last 30 days against righties. Still, Gausman has been very good against lefties and has been very good overall.

This won’t be an easy pitcher to hit for the Yankees. Judge does have a good matchup through.

Meanwhile, Luis Severino should end up getting the start for the Yankees. He threw to 18 batters in his return and had a 2,81 xFIP with 33.3% of strikeouts.


The Over/Under Pick

Toronto’s lineup is hitting a .296 wOBA with nearly 50% of ground balls and 19% of line drives.

Judge could pop one out of the yard, but I’d still expect a pitcher’s duel between Severino and Gausman. Let’s take the Under for my MLB picks.

MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-120) at BetOnline

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Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Monday, September 26, 2022 - 06:35 PM EDT at PNC Park

Team Analysis

Cincinnati Reds

I don’t have much to choose from here. But I like the Pirates, at home, against the Reds.

Chase Anderson is on the mound for the Reds tonight. He has had a 4.93 xFIP over the last 30 days with 14.5% of walks.

He has had a .167 BABIP over the previous 30 days, which is hard to sustain moving forward.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh has hit 21.9% of line drives against righties over the last 30 days and has five batters hitting at least a .157 ISO against righties in the lineup.

Roansy Contreras will take the mound for the Pirates. The righty has been the most consistent pitcher for the Pirates this season, with over 24% of strikeouts and 7.4% of walks over the last 30 days.


The Run Line Pick

The Reds have been far from consistent and easily have the worse pitcher on the mound in this game.

If there’s any game that could result in a two-run win on today’s slate, I like the Pirates to get it done.

MLB Pick: Pirates RL -1.5 (+145) at BetOnline

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Pirates RL -1.5 (+145)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.