We’ve put together our favorite three bets for the night with a small slate of games on the horizon. Let us know if you’re tailing these bets!
There are plenty of intriguing matchups for today’s MLB slate. Find out where I see value below.
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
Thursday, September 15, 2022 – 01:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are getting some really good innings out of Lance Lynn. He’ll take the ball today with an xFIP of 3.53 over the last 30 days. He’s struck out 31.1% of batters in that time frame while only walking 3.3%.
Lynn has been inconsistent this season, holding an ERA of 4.07. But he’s been so much better analytically in the last 30 days. Lynn’s limited line drives to 18.7% and has a BABIP of .208.
The opposition has a low ISO and wOBA number against Lynn as MLB pick from both slides of the plate.
Meanwhile, the Guardians are hitting a .113 ISO with a wOBA of .273 against righties in the last 30 days with their projected lineup. Only Jose Ramirez and Oscar Gonzalez have an above-average wOBA against righties.
The Guardians have only struck out 16.5% of the time against righties but have also walked just 7% of the time. On the other hand, Hunter Gaddis will get the start for the Guardians in this make-up game. Gaddis is 0-1 with a 21.60 ERA after one start that lasted 3.1 innings earlier this year.
The rookie has some good stuff but he’s being asked to do a lot in a big divisional game. The Guardians are leading the White Sox by four games in the AL Central but if Chicago pulls out the win, the White Sox would be just three games out with multiple weeks to go.
Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez, and Gavin Sheets have all consistently hit righties in the last 30 days. They’ll be stacked up together in the middle of the order. Let’s ride with the White Sox in this one.
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
Thursday, September 15, 2022 - 07:40 PM EDT at Target Field
Kansas City Royals
Daniel Lynch is expected to take the mound for the Royals. He has a 4-10 record with a 5.14 ERA. He’s also a lefty who will likely take on at least seven righties in the Minnesota lineup.
Lynch has a 5.23 xFIP over the last 30 days with under 14% of strikeouts in that same time frame. Lefties have a .417 wOBA but righties have a .396 wOBA with a higher ISO of .214.
Carlos Correa, Jose Miranda, and Gio Urshela have destroyed lefties in the last 30 days. Each of those batters has an ISO of more than .275 with a wOBA of at least .395.
The Twins strike out a lot, but Lynch isn’t the guy that’s going to rack up strikeouts.
The Minnesota Twins are also fighting for the AL Central with the Guardians and White Sox. They’ll be wide awake for tonight’s game after seeing the results of the Guardians game earlier in the day.
Dylan Bundy will get the start for the Twins. His xFIP is sitting at 6.28. He’s not getting many strikeouts and he’s allowing plenty of line drives while rarely earning ground balls. Bundy’s been much worse against righties, allowing a .433 wOBA and ISO of .264.
The Royals will only have three righties in the lineup, however, those righties include Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, and Michael A. Taylor. Those three baters have been the most consistent for the Royals.
I like the Twins to score more, but believe the Royals can contribute enough to get this total over 8.5.
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-120) at BetOnline
Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros
Thursday, September 15, 2022 - 07:20 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
The Astros will pitch Lance McCullers for tonight’s game against Oakland. He’s struck out 21.2% of batters but has also kept line drives and hard contact percentages down over the last month.
He’s facing an Athletics lineup that has an ISO of .140 along with a wOBA of .292. This same lineup has also struck out 26.6% of the time against righties over the last 30 days.
On the other hand, James Kaprielian will take the hill for Oakland. He’s holding an xFIP of 7.68 with under 15% of strikeouts and over 14% of walks. He’s simply walked the same amount of batters that he’s struck out in the last 30 days.
Righties are hitting a wOBA of .454 and ISO of .314, however, he’s done well against lefties. Still, the Astros will have seven righties in their lineup including lefties like Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez.
I’ve got the Astros winning tonight’s game by multiple runs. Take Houston on the runline.
MLB Pick: Astros -1.5 (-145) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.