We’ve put together our favorite three bets for the night with a full slate of games on the horizon. Let us know if you’re tailing these bets! There are plenty of intriguing matchups for today’s MLB slate.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals
Wednesday, September 14, 2022 – 07:05 PM EDT at Nationals Park
The Baltimore Orioles will look to get their offense going against Patrick Corbin, who is 6-18 on the season with a 6.30 ERA.
Corbin has a 4.75 xFIP over the last 30 days with 14.3% of strikeouts in that same time frame. He’s also allowed 23.5% of line drives and 47.1% of hard contact.
Corbin’s a lefty who has struggled against righties over the last 30 days. Therefore, the Orioles will send out at least six righties in their lineup against Corbin.
Baltimore’s lineup has six batters hitting a line drive percentage of 25% or higher in the last 30 days against lefties.
Only two batters in the lineup are hitting ground balls beyond 40% over the previous 30 days against lefties. Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle are the two bats to watch for at the top of the order. Both have hit lefties well and consistently over the last month.
Meanwhile, Tyler Wells will get the start for the Orioles as the MLB pick. He’s 7-6 with a 3.91 ERA on the season. Wells was injured throughout August but came back to pitch a week ago against the Blue Jays.
He only went 2 innings and allowed 1 run on 2 hits. He’ll be able to go deeper in this game against a weak Nationals lineup that has hit 49.3% of ground balls over the last 30 days. I’ve got the Orioles winning on the moneyline here.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Wednesday, September 14, 2022 - 07:45 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
We’ve got an exciting pitching duel between the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals. Corbin Burnes will take the hill for the Brewers.
He has a 10-6 record with a 2.93 ERA. In the last 30 days, Burnes has had a 3.74 xFIP with 26.6% of strikeouts and 6.5% of walks.
He’s giving up 27.2% of line drives and only inducing 40.7% of ground balls, but it’s hard for batters to hit Burnes.
The Cardinals have only struck out 13.1% of the time against righties in the last month using their projected lineup, but that number will increase against Burnes.
St. Louis Cardinals
On the other hand, Adam Wainwright will get the call for the Cardinals. He’ll get to pitch to Yadier Molina for another game.
He’s almost got the most battery appearances in the majors with Yadier Molina. Wainwright has a 4.19 xFIP with low walks.
He’s also induced 46.1% of ground balls. Wainwright continues to limit fly balls and rarely gives up extra-base hits.
I’ll trust these two reliable pitchers to get us an under in tonight’s game.
MLB Pick: Under 7 (-105) at BetOnline
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago White Sox
Wednesday, September 14, 2022 - 02:10 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Field
The Chicago White Sox will get to take on another lefty. This afternoon, they’ll face Kyle Freeland, who has a 4.92 xFIP in the last 30 days. Freeland has a low ground ball rate while allowing 22.2% of line drives in the previous 30 days.
Righties have a .179 ISO against Freeland, and he’ll have to face a lineup full of right-handers. The White Sox have a .325 ISO and wOBA of .478 against lefties in the last month using their projected lineup.
Only Andrew Vaughn and Luis Robert have struggled to succeed against lefties over the previous 30 days. But in Robert’s defense, he’s been out of the lineup due to multiple things.
The White Sox have struck out just 12.6% of the time against lefties and have walked 12% of the time. They’re also hitting 23.2% of line drives against lefties over the last 30 days.
Chicago White Sox
On the other hand, Dylan Cease will get the call for the White Sox. Cease has struck out 26% of batters and will face a Colorado team that has struck out 24.8% of the time in the last 30 days using their projected lineup.
The Rockies have also hit just a .141 ISO and wOBA of .293 against righties in the last 30 days. Cease is trying to win an AL Cy Young as he closes the season. He’s been outstanding throughout the season.
He’s holding a 14-6 record with a 2.06 ERA. Therefore, everything matches up. We’ll take the White Sox -1.5 in today’s game.
MLB Pick: White Sox -1.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.