We’ve put together our favorite three bets for the night with a small slate of games on the horizon. Let us know if you’re tailing these bets!
There are plenty of intriguing matchups for today’s MLB slate. Find out where I see value below. I gave out my favorite moneyline, total, and runline bets for the slate!
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Monday, September 12, 2022 – 07:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre
Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays will take on the Tampa Bay Rays in an important AL East matchup. Although the Blue Jays and Rays are behind the Yankees in the AL East, there’s still enough time to get passed the Yankees.
For now, both teams have a spot in the AL Wild Card, and they’ll want to keep their positions. The Blue Jays will pitch Jose Berrios for tonight’s game at home. Berrios is 10-5 with a 5.23 ERA on the season.
Berrios has had a 4.27 xFIP in the last 30 days with 20.4% of strikeouts and 4.9% of walks. His BABIP is high at .370, which should ultimately drop, knowing Berrios has induced over 45% of ground balls. He’s also limited line drives to 21.3%, which isn’t terrible.
Berrios has been much worse against lefties but will only face four lefties in the Rays’ lineup.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have hit under 20% of line drives against righties over the last 30 days with their projected lineup. Wander Franco has been a significant asset to the Rays, but overall, the middle portion of the order has struggled.
Cooper Criswell will get his first start of the season. He was with the Angels to begin the year. He threw 41 pitches in his only outing and gave up 6 hits and 3 runs in 1.1 innings.
The Rays develop starters and pitchers well, but it’s hard to imagine Criswell out-pitching Berrios in a prominent spot. I’ll take the Blue Jays at -145.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
Monday, September 12, 2022 - 06:40 PM EDT at Great American Ball Park
We’ve got a matchup between two pitchers with inflated ERAs. Bryse Wilson will take the hill for the Pirates.
On the season, he’s 2-8 with a 6.11 ERA. It hasn’t gotten any better over the last 30 days for Wilson.
He’s thrown a 5.37 xFI with just 11.1% of strikeouts. Lefties are hitting a .352 wOBA and ISO of .265 in the last 30 days, while righties also have a .369 wOBA.
The Reds have a lot of power between T.J. Friedl, Jake Fraley, Aristides Aquino, and Andrew Romine. They’ve hit righties with a high ISO over the last 30 days.
Meanwhile, Mike Minor will take the hill for the Reds. The lefty is 4-10 with a 5.70 ERA on the season. Over the last 30 days, Minor has had a 5.03 xFIP with 12.9% of strikeouts.
The lefty has limited power in the previous 30 days but has still allowed a wOBA of .345 against righties. The Pirates still have a .198 ISO collectively against lefties over the last 30 days.
Therefore, we’ve got two teams with reliable power over the last 30 days going up against two pitchers who have allowed a ton of runs this season. For this MLB pick, I’ll take the over.
MLB Pick: Over 9 (-115) at BetOnline
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets
Monday, September 12, 2022 -07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
The Chicago Cubs have been dreadful against righties over the last 30 days. The Cubs have a .166 ISO with a wOBA of .301 but have struck out 28.2% of the time against righties in that time frame.
Javier Assad will get the start for the Cubs. Through his last 67 batters faced, Assad has an xFIP of 4.82 with low strikeouts and high walks. He’s also struggled against lefties as a right-hander.
New York Mets
Chris Bassitt isn’t known for having high strikeouts, but he’s coming off a masterpiece performance against the Pirates where he struck out ten batters. He’s also getting a high rate of ground balls and limiting line drives to under 18%.
The Mets figure to have six lefties of their nine batters going up against Assad. The Mets are hitting 27.2% of line drives against righties with their potential lineup and have a wOBA of .349. The Mets should win this game by multiple runs.
MLB Pick: Mets -1.5 (-135) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.