With a full slate of games on the horizon, we’ve put together the best moneyline, run line, and total for the Mariners vs. Tigers, Brewers vs. Diamondbacks, and Rockies vs. Braves.
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers
Thursday, September 1, 2022 – 01:10 PM EDT at Comerica Park
The Seattle Mariners will send out Logan Gilbert for today’s matchup. Gilbert has a 10-5 record with a 3.49 ERA on the season. The righty has had an exciting rookie campaign, but he’s struggled a bit as of late.
Gilbert has a 6.35 xFIP in the last 30 days with just 12.4% of strikeouts. Righties have had the most success, hitting a .435 wOBA with an ISO of .274 in the last 30 days.
But the Tigers will have eight lefties in the lineup against Gilbert. They’re also hitting a .096 ISO with a wOBA of .290 and have struck out 27% of the time against righties in the last month. Gilbert should ultimately have a good outing today.
Eduardo Rodriguez will pitch for the Tigers. The lefty is 3-3 with a 3.60 ERA. However, like Gilbert, Rodriguez has had a high xFIP since returning from an injury. He’s got a 5.82 xFIP in the last 30 days with 15.2% of strikeouts and 13% of walks.
The Mariners haven’t been all that great offensively either, except that Seattle has hit 23.7% of line drives against lefties in the last 30 days. Rodriguez has allowed 24.2% of line drives in that time frame.
The Moneyline Pick
There’s more potential in this lineup for the Mariners. So let’s take the Mariners at -155.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Thursday, September 1, 2022 - 09:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
The Arizona Diamondbacks are just seven games away from being .500. It’s not the goal they had in mind at the beginning of the season. Still, if Arizona finishes with a .500 record, it would be respectable around the league. Especially knowing that their top prospects are starting to come up.
They’ll send Merrill Kelly to the mound against the Milwaukee Brewers. Kelly is 11-5 with a 2.97 ERA on the season. He also has a 4.00 xFIP in the last 30 days with 24% of strikeouts. He’s been really solid for a losing team.
He’ll also take on a Milwaukee lineup that has been dreadful at the bottom portion of the order against righties. The 6-7-8-9 hitters are all hitting a wOBA of .263 or lower, and those guys rarely hit line drives against righties. The top of the order could have some success, but the bottom half will kill some of these rallies.
Brandon Woodruff will get the call for the Brewers. He’s 9-3 with a 3.31 ERA on the year. In the last 30 days, he’s been just as good, holding a 3.86 xFIP with 25.8% of strikeouts.
He’s allowed some power to righties, giving up an ISO of .238 to his last 66 righties faced, but overall, only Christian Walker has high ISO numbers against righties in the last 30 days on Arizona.
The Over/Under Pick
Neither offense excites me tonight. So for your MLB picks, take the Under.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-115) at BetOnline
Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves
Thursday, September 1, 2022 - 07:20 PM EDT at Truist Park
Spencer Strider will head out to the mound for the Braves. He’s 8-4 with a 2.87 ERA on the season. He’s currently got a 3.00 xFIP, and he also has a 35.5% of strikeout rate.
Strider has been electric and will take on a Rockies lineup with a .119 ISO in the last 30 days against righties. Colorado is using a bunch of new prospects at the bottom of the order, and this lineup for the Rockies rarely walks against righties.
Chad Kuhl will take the mound for the Rockies. He has a 6.37 xFIP since coming back from injury and has been getting absolutely smoked from both sides of the plate recently.
The Braves are hitting a .178 ISO and wOBA of .338, which isn’t extremely good, but it’s good enough with Strider on the mound.
The Run Line Pick
I’ll ride the Braves on the run line, even with the juice.
MLB Pick: Braves RL -1.5 (-180) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.