MLB Daily Picks: Best Moneyline, Run Line and Total for October 3

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Starting pitcher Aaron Nola #27 of the Philadelphia Phillies delivers the pitch in the first inning against the Chicago Cubs. Quinn Harris/Getty Images/AFP.

We’ve put together our favorite three bets for the night with a full slate of games on the horizon. Let us know if you’re tailing these bets!

There are plenty of intriguing matchups for tonight’s MLB slate. Find out where I see value below.

I gave out my favorite moneyline, total, and runline bets for the slate! Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top-rated sportsbooks!

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros

Monday, October 3, 2022 – 08:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park

Team Analysis

Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies control their destiny. The Phillies have a two-game lead on the Milwaukee Brewers with three games to play. If the Phillies win one more game and the Brewers lose one more game, they’ll earn that final spot in the NL Wild Card.

Aaron Nola will take the hill for the Phillies, going up against an Astros team that’s already clinched their division. Nola has a 2.95 xFIP over the last 30 days and has struck out 32.1% of batters in that time frame.

He’s also walked just 6.3% of batters while earning over 47% of ground balls. Lefties are hitting a .178 ISO and wOBA of .026 in the last month, while righties are hitting a .301 wOBA and ISO of .136 in the last month against Nola.

In a game where the Phillies can clinch a Wild Card spot, expectations are that Nola will be just as dominant as he’s been all year.

Houston Astros

Meanwhile, Lance McCullers will take the mound. He’s looked outstanding since coming off the injured list.

Still, he’s walked 10.4% of batters and has given up 22.2% of line drives.

The Phillies have five batters hitting 25.5% or higher of line drives against righties. This lineup also has six batters hitting an ISO of at least .173, which is above average.

The Moneyline Pick

I like the Phillies to sneak on by with a low-scoring victory against the Astros on the road.

MLB Pick: Phillies ML (+105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Phillies ML (+105)
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox

Monday, October 3, 2022 - 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park

Team Analysis

Tampa Bay Rays

Tyler Glasnow will make his second start of the season for the Rays. The ace pitcher is trying to get back from the injured list and be ready for the postseason.

In his return, Glasnow finished with a 4.18 xFIP but also had 27.3% of strikeouts. Glasnow induced over 57% of grounders to go with it.

He’ll face a Red Sox lineup that has hit a .131 ISO and wOBA of .311. This same lineup has also hit nearly 50% of ground balls and under 20% of line drives against righties over the last 30 days.

Boston Red Sox

On the flip side, the veteran lefty, Rich Hill will get the call for his final start of the season. Hill has a 4.55 xFIP in the last 30 days, but he’s earned 25% of strikeouts.

Still, the Rays have been dominant against lefties, hitting a .393 wOBA with 10.6% of strikeouts.

However, only four batters in the lineup have an ISO of .182 or better, and Tampa Bay has hit over 50% of ground balls against lefties.

The Over/Under Pick

The Rays likely win this game, but Hill should be able to escape without allowing the total to go Over.

MLB Pick: Under 8 (-105) at BetOnline

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Under 8 (-105)
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Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets

Monday, October 3, 2022 - 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field

Team Analysis

New York Mets

The Atlanta Braves swept the Mets over the weekend. The better team beat the Mets, but that doesn’t mean the Mets are bad.

They will be a significant threat in the post season with their pitching staff.

Anyway, Carlos Carrasco will get the start for the Mets tonight, going up against Cory Abbott of the Nationals.

Carrasco has a 3.78 xFIP in the last 30 days with 25.8% of strikeouts. He will take on a Washington lineup with a .146 ISO and wOBA of .302 with just 6.4% of walks.

Washington Nationals

On the other hand, Abbott has been holding a 6.38 xFIP in the last 30 days with 19.3% of strikeouts and 10.8% of walks.

He’s also induced under 30% of ground balls and has given up more than 50% of fly balls.

The Run Line Pick

The Mets were weak offensively against the Braves. They got guys on base but didn’t bring them through.

Against Abbott and the Nationals, that’s going to flip. Back the Mets to earn the run line victory.

MLB Pick: Mets -1.5 (-135) at BetOnline

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.