With a full slate of games on the horizon, we’ve put together the best moneyline, run line, and total for the night.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Tuesday, August 16, 2022 – 09:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants are streaking right now. They are back over .500 and are still fighting for a Wild Card spot in the National League.
Jakob Junis will get the call for the Giants. He has a 4-3 record with a 3.78 ERA on the season. However, in the last 30 days, Junis has a 5.03 xFIP and has allowed nearly 30% of line drives.
Junis isn’t getting a high amount of grounders and he’s also not getting a ton of strikeouts.
The Diamondbacks have six players in their projected lineup striking out fewer than 17%. Arizona should ultimately put the ball in play and have success against Junis. Daulton Varsho, Emmanuel Rivera, Christian Walker, and Carson Kelly have all put up really good numbers against righties in the last month.
Meanwhile, Merrill Kelly will get the call for Arizona. He’s 10-5 with a 2.95 ERA on the season. Kelly has been terrific all year and his analytics only confirm it.
Kelly has a 3.53 xFIP in the last 30 days with over 25% of strikeouts and under 5% of walks. He’s earned more than 50% of grounders in the last 30 days and has also allowed under 19% of line drives, and he’s taking on a Giants lineup that has a .168 ISO and wOBA of .319 against righties in the last month.
The Moneyline Pick
The Giants would have much worse numbers without LaMonte Wade in the lineup. Wade is hitting a .571 ISO along with a wOBA of .485 against righties.
Other than Wade, the Giants haven’t really produced consistently. Take the Diamondbacks on the road in this one.
Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox
Tuesday, August 16, 2022 - 08:10 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Field
We’ve got an exciting matchup in Chicago tonight. It’ll be Justin Verlander of the Astros going up against Dylan Cease of the White Sox.
Justin Verlander is likely going to win the AL Cy Young this season. He’s 15-3 on the year with a 1.85 ERA. This guy never ages.
He’s struck out 26% of batters and has walked 5% in the last 30 days while allowing just 13% of line drives.
Meanwhile, the White Sox are hitting a .153 wOBA and ISO of .333. It’s unlikely that Luis Robert will be in the lineup for Chicago again, however, so that’s going to make life easier for Verlander.
Chicago White Sox
Dylan Cease, on the other hand, is 12-5 with a 1.96 ERA on the season. Cease has worked his way up the American League Cy Young latter too. He’s probably not going to beat out Verlander, but he’s making it close.
In the last 30 days, Cease has stuck out 27.8% of batters while allowing under 15% of line drives.
Do you see a theme? The top pitchers in the American League are limiting line drives and getting a high rate of strikeouts.
The Over/Under Pick
The Astros are hitting just a .131 ISO with a wOBA of .297 against righties in the last 30 days. This offense has cooled off analytically and Cease is the hottest pitcher in baseball right now.
So let’s take the Under 7 in this one.
MLB Pick: Under 7 (-110) at BetOnline
Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Tuesday, August 16, 2022 - 07:45 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
Any time the Cardinals are facing a lefty, you have to take notice. The Cardinals will take on Kyle Freeland of the Rockies tonight and I’m ready to go all in.
Kyle Freeland is 7-8 with a 4.84 ERA on the season. In the last 30 days, he’s got a 5.05 xFIP while allowing 50% of hard contact.
The Cardinals, on the other hand, are hitting a .295 ISO with a wOBA of .415 against lefties in the last 30 days. This lineup has also struck out just 15.6% of the time while walking over 10% of the time.
St. Louis is stacked against lefties in the middle of their order.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals will pitch Jose Quintana, who is 4-5 with a 3.37 ERA. In the last 30 days, he’s been really good, holding a 3.79 xFIP with nearly 23% of strikeouts.
Quintana also earns 50% of ground balls while limiting walks to 6.5%. The Rockies are pretty limited offensively when away from home.
Only Randal Grichuk and Ryan McMahon have been consistent at the plate against lefties in the last 30 days.
The Run Line Pick
Colorado rarely works out walks and relies mainly on power.
I’ll take the Cardinals on the run line in this one.
MLB Pick: Cardinals RL -1.5 (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.