With a full slate of games on the horizon, we’ve put together our favorite three bets for the night, including the moneyline, run line, and total.
There are plenty of intriguing matchups for today’s MLB slate, so let us know if you’re tailing these bets!
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Saturday, September 03, 2022 – 08:10 PM EDT at Chase Field
The Milwaukee Brewers are still seven games above .500. They’re also still looking to make the MLB Postseason. They’ve made it hard on themselves and could be the only team above .500 in the NL to miss the postseason now.
Anyway, Corbin Burnes will take the hill tonight. Burnes has a 9-6 record with a 2.84 ERA on the season. He also has an xFIP of 3.69 in the last 30 days with 24.6% of strikeouts and 5.9% of walks.
Burnes has been giving up some power to lefties recently, but there’s only one lefty in the Arizona order that has hit righties with consistency. And Burnes isn’t just your ordinary righty.
On the other hand, Madison Bumgarner will take the hill for Arizona. The lefty has a 6-13 record with a 4.87 ERA. He’s been even worse in the last 30 days, holding an xFIP of 5.44 in that time frame.
The Brewers figure to have six righties in the lineup. This lineup has hit 24.1% of line drives against lefties in the last 30 days, and they’ve also kept the ball off the ground against lefties.
The Brewers have three batters hitting a .261 ISO or better against lefties in the last 30 days. Bumgarner has allowed a .394 wOBA and ISO of .207 to lefties and a .441 wOBA and ISO of .270 to righties in the last 30 days.
The Moneyline Pick
It doesn’t matter who is facing Bumgarner. He’s getting rocked on either side of the plate.
Let’s roll with the Brewers at -175 tonight.
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels
Saturday, September 03, 2022 - 09:07 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels will send out Shohei Ohtani for tonight’s game. Ohtani has an 11-8 record with a 2.67 ERA on the season. He’s struck out 25.8% of batters in the last 30 days and has a 4.20 xFIP in that same time frame.
Ohtani has struggled a bit more against lefties recently, but overall, he’s taking on an Astros lineup that has up-and-down.
Three batters in the Astros’ lineup are red hot against righties, between Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker. However, there are three other batters who are ice cold: Jeremy Pena, Yordan Alvarez, and Yuli Gurriel.
Those guys will become rally killers for this group, especially since Pena and Alvarez have been striking out at such a high rate. It’s not guaranteed that Alvarez will play, but he’ll likely be in the lineup tonight.
Conversely, Luis Garcia will take the mound for the Astros. He is 11-8 with a 4.14 ERA on the season. In the last 30 days, he’s been a bit worse, holding a 4.41 xFIP. However, he’s allowed a .397 BABIP in the last 30 days.
It’s extremely hard to allow a .397 BABIP when giving up just 20.8% of hard contact in a month of baseball. His stats are going to look better in September if he continues to do what he’s been doing. The only lefty that has potential against Garcia would be Ohtani.
The Over/Under Pick
For my MLB pick on this matchup, I’ll take the under in this one.
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-115) with BetOnline
Oakland Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles
Saturday, September 03, 2022 - 07:05 PM EDT at Oriole Park
The Orioles will get to face Adam Oller tonight. Oller has a 2-6 record with a 5.66 ERA on the season. Clearly, he’s been hit around recently. In the last 30 days, things have been even worse.
Oller has walked more batters than he’s struck out and rarely induces ground balls.
The Orioles have added Gunnar Henderson to their lineup. He’ll be massive against the righty as a left-handed batter. The Orioles have six guys in the order hitting a high ISO against righties in the last 30 days.
Meanwhile, Austin Voth will get the call for the Orioles. He’s holding a BABIP of .203 in the last 30 days.
He’s also kept the power down against righties. Lefties have a bit more power but in the Oakland lineup, there’s not a single lefty hitting righties consistently in the last 30 days.
The Run Line Pick
Oakland has struck out 26.4% of the time against righties in the last 30 days. Voth isn’t a major strikeout thrower, but the Athletics are still one of the worst lineups in baseball.
Plus, the Orioles are playing meaningful baseball in September, so let’s grab them on the runline.
MLB Pick: Orioles -1.5 (-110) with BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.