There are plenty of intriguing matchups for today’s MLB slate. Find out where I see value below. I gave out my favorite moneyline, total, and runline bets for the slate!
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Saturday, September 24, 2022 – 04:05 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
I took a chance with the Phillies yesterday and got the straight-up moneyline win. Today though, I’m going in a different direction.
Kyle Wright will take the mound for the Braves. He’s 19-5 on the season and one win away from a 20-win season.
Wright has an xFIP of 3.70 over the last 30 days and has induced nearly 70% of ground balls while allowing just 14.3% of line drives.
The right-hander will take on a Phillies lineup that has hit 47.8% of ground balls over the last 30 days. Only Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto, and Brandon Marsh have had success against righties in the previous 30 days. The other six batters in the lineup haven’t been as good.
On the flip side, Bailey Falter will get the call for the Phillies. He has had a 4.34 xFIP over the last 30 days. He’s limited walks but hasn’t limited line drives. He’s also not getting a lot of ground balls over the previous 30 days.
The Braves are hitting 24% of line drives using their projected lineup against lefties and continue to earn a high amount of walks with six of their nine batters.
The Moneyline Pick
I like the Braves to take one back against the Phillies in today’s ball game.
The Braves are now a couple of games back from the NL East, and while the division looks like it’ll be New York’s, they’re going to want to end this losing streak and get back in the win column.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins
Saturday, September 24, 2022 - 07:10 PM EDT at Target Field
Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels will pitch left-hander Reid Detmers for tonight’s game. Detmers is 6-5 with a 3.71 ERA in his rookie season. The lefty has a 5.98 xFIP over the last 30 days, but he’s limited line drives to under 20%.
He’s also keeping extra-base hits down, and will face a Twins lineup with a .285 wOBA with 27.5% of strikeouts against lefties over the last 30 days.
The Twins are getting production from the top of the order. But the bottom portion of the order is slacking right now.
Minnesota has hit nearly 50% of ground balls against lefties with just 17.1% of line drives.
On the other hand, Joe Ryan will pitch for the Twins. He’s another rookie having a tremendous year.
Ryan is 12-8 with a 3.61 ERA on the season. Like Detmers, his limited line drives well and earned 28.2% of strikeouts in the last month.
He’ll face an Angels lineup that has struck out 28.8% of the time against righties over the last 30 days.
The Over/Under Pick
Los Angeles also hasn’t hit many line drives against righties in these last 30 days, so let’s take the Under 7 in this matchup.
MLB Pick: Under 7 (+100) with BetOnline
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Saturday, September 24, 2022 - 06:40 PM EDT at Great American Ball Park
The Milwaukee Brewers are still fighting for that final spot in the NL Wild Card. They have to win games with Corbin Burnes on the mound moving forward.
Burnes is 10-8 with a 3.12 ERA on the season. However, over the last 30 days, Brunes has had a 3.35 xFIP with 25% of strikeouts and 4.5% of walks.
He’s still been terrific and will take on a Reds lineup with a .285 wOBA with nearly 46% of ground balls hitting over the last 30 days against righties.
Meanwhile, Graham Ashcraft will get the start for the Reds.
He hasn’t pitched since August 19, and this year he has a 4.30 xFIP with 15.8% of strikeouts.
The Run Line Pick
The Brewers have a lot of power against righties in their lineup, including Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez, Hunter Renfroe, and Kolten Wong, so for this MLB pick, I’ll back the Brewers to cover the runline with Burnes on the mound.
MLB Pick: Brewers -1.5 (-125) with BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.