We’ve put together our favorite three bets for the night with a full slate of games on the horizon. Let us know if you’re tailing these bets!
There are plenty of intriguing matchups for today’s MLB slate. Find out where I see value below. I gave out my favorite moneyline, total, and runline bets for the slate!
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres
Tuesday, September 20, 2022 – 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
San Diego Padres
The St. Louis Cardinals will take on Mike Clevinger of the San Diego Padres tonight. Clevinger is a right-handed pitcher with a 5-7 record. He’s also holding a 4.47 ERA on the year.
In the last 30 days, the righty has a 6.24 xFIP with 15.9% of strikeouts. He’s also induced just 35.4% of ground balls while allowing an ISO of .231 to lefties and an ISO of .372 to righties over the last 30 days.
Righties also have a high .456 wOBA against Clevinger over the last 30 days.
St. Louis is only hitting a .158 ISO and wOBA of .308 against righties in that same time frame. However, the Cardinals have limited strikeouts to 16% over the last 30 days against righties. The ball will play against a pitcher with an xFIP of over six.
St. Louis Cardinals
Meanwhile, Adam Wainwright will get another start for the Cardinals. Wainwright has an 11-9 record with a 3.29 ERA.
In the last 30 days, Wainwright has been inconsistent. He’s limited walks but has allowed over 31% of line drives.
However, the Padres are hitting a .137 ISO with a wOBA of .268 against righties over the last 30 days.
This same projected lineup has also struck out nearly 24% of the time and has hit line drives just 18.1% of the time.
The Moneyline Pick
San Diego has been inconsistent at the plate and will take on one of the most consistent pitchers in our generation.
I’ll take my chances with the Cardinals on the road.
Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics
Tuesday, September 20, 2022 - 09:40 PM EDT at Oakland Coliseum
Luis Castillo was shelled in his last outing against the Oakland Athletics. But I’m not buying that he’ll do that again tonight.
Castillo has a 3.32 xFIP in the last 30 days with 30.3% of strikeouts and 4.2% of walks. He’s also induced over 53% of ground balls with just 12% of line drives allowed.
The Athletics are hitting a .136 ISO with a wOBA of .268. They’ve also struck out 28.9% of the time against righties with just 6.7% of walks.
I have no faith in this Athletics lineup against a guy like Castillo.
Meanwhile, J.P. Sears will get the call for the Athletics. He’s 5-2 with a 3.90 ERA.
Sears has limited walks to 7.5% and has kept the power down against lefties over the last 30 days. Righties have had some success, but it’s always harder to find power in Oakland.
Seattle is also hitting a .141 ISO with a wOBA of .265 in that same time frame. They’ve limited strikeouts at the plate but still hit nearly 45% of grounders.
The Over/Under Pick
Sears will likely allow a couple of runs, but he’s not going to get beat up.
If Castillo shuts down the Athletics, as expected, this game will go Under the total.
MLB Pick: Under 7 (-120) at BetOnline
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
Tuesday, September 20, 2022 - 07:20 PM EDT at Truist Park
We went with Atlanta on the runline yesterday, and it worked out. Why not try again?
The Braves will take on Patrick Corbin of the Nationals, a lefty with 18 losses on the season. He also has a 6.11 ERA on the year and is holding a 4.33 xFIP over the last 30 days.
Corbin has struggled against righties more, allowing a .352 wOBA and ISO of .202 to his last 104 righties.
Meanwhile, the Braves have a .318 wOBA against righties using their projected lineup.
Righties with power include Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley, and Willson Contreras. Matt Olson, batting from the left side, also has the potential to go yard.
On the other hand, Charlie Morton will get the call for the Braves. He’s 8-6 with a 4.17 ERA.
He’s been hot and cold, but in the second half, he’s been more hot than cold.
He’s struck out nearly 28% of batters while allowing just over 35% of hard contact.
The Run Line Pick
The Nationals are aggressive at the plate and have walked just 5.2% of the time. If Morton can keep the Nationals off the base paths, he’ll cruise to a victory for the Braves.
For our last MLB pick, let’s take the Braves on the run line.
MLB Pick: Braves -1.5 (-165) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.