We’ve put together our favorite three bets for the day, with a small slate of games on the horizon. Let us know if you’re tailing these bets!
There are plenty of intriguing matchups for today’s MLB slate. Find out where I see value below. I gave out my favorite moneyline, total, and run line bets for the slate!
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Monday, September 19, 2022 – 04:07 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
The Mariners have 80 wins but are still slotted into the final Wild Card spot in the American League.
It’s no guarantee that the Mariners will make the playoffs. However, they’re four games ahead of the Orioles for the last spot in the AL Wild Card.
Logan Gilbert will take the mound with a 12-6 record and a 3.19 ERA. In the last 30 days, he’s been just as good, holding a 3.57 xFIP with 25.4% of strikeouts and 3.5% of walks.
He has limited lefties and righties with a low wOBA and ISO from both sides of the plate recently.
Los Angeles Angels
Meanwhile, the Angels are getting major production out of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. However, outside of them, Los Angeles is weak.
They’ve struck out 26.4% of the time against righties in the last 30 days and have just Mikey Moniak hitting for power against righties along with Trout and Ohtani.
On the other hand, Jose Suarez will get the start for the Angels. He’s 6-7 with a 3.84 ERA on the year. Righties have had more success against the lefties, hitting a .332 wOBA and ISO of .169 in his last 77 plate appearances against righties.
The Moneyline Pick
The Mariners have limited strikeouts against lefties and have walked 13% of the time in the last 30 days against lefties with their projected lineup.
The Mariners have more potential to get on base and create runs.
Needing a Wild Card spot, expect the Mariners to manage closely and come away with the win.
New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Monday, September 19, 2022 - 07:40 PM EDT at American Family Field
Both teams will have their aces on the mound. It’ll be Max Scherzer going up against Corbin Burnes.
New York Mets
The New York Mets are trying to hold on to their NL East divisional lead. The Mets are still one game above the Braves with a little over two weeks to go.
However, the Mets could clinch a playoff berth with their next win.
Matt Scherzer’s making his return from the injured list. In the last 30 days prior, he’s struck out 26% of batters with 4.1% of walks.
He’s limited extra-base hits well and keeps his wOBA down against both sides of the plate.
The Brewers have struck out 22.8% of the time against righties over the last 30 days. They’re getting power from the top of their order but minimal production from the bottom portion of the order.
On the other hand, the Brewers are two games away from the Phillies for the final NL Wild Card spot. This game is just as significant for the Brewers.
The Mets are hitting a .358 wOBA against righties and will take on Corbin Burnes.
Burnes has a 10-7 record with a 2.97 ERA. He’s holding a 3.58 xFIP in the last 30 days with 24.8% of strikeouts and 5.4% of walks. Burnes can induce a high amount of grounders and limit fly balls.
He’s just struggled a tiny bit with lefties, allowing a .350 wOBA and ISO of .208 through his last 79 lefties faced, but the lefties in the Mets’ lineup have been average when it comes to power.
The Over/Under Pick
I’ll gladly take the under between these two aces in a significant game.
MLB Pick: Under 7 (-120) at BetOnline
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
Monday, September 19, 2022 - 07:20 PM EDT at Truist Park
Atlanta’s got Washington for their next series. This could be the week they take over the NL East, knowing the Mets are facing the Brewers.
The Braves will pitch Kyle Wright, who could finish with 20 wins on the season. He’s currently 18-5 with a 3.18 ERA on the year.
Wright has a 4.01 xFIP with 23.7% of strikeouts. He’s also got a high ground ball rate of 63.3% while limiting line drives to 11.7%.
Washington’s lineup has performed better against righties recently, but against Wright, things will be difficult.
The best way to get on against Wright is to walk, but the Nationals have walked 5.9% of the time with their projected lineup.
On the other hand, Cory Abbott will take the hill for the Nationals.
He’s got a 6.15 xFIP in the last 30 days. Righties have a .217 ISO against him over his last 25 plate appearances.
The Run Line Pick
The Braves should have at least six righties in their lineup, including Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley, and Travis d’Arnaud, who have all hit righties with power consistently in the last month.
So, for our final MLB pick, let’s take the Braves on the runline.
MLB Pick: Braves -1.5 (-165) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.