We’ve put together our favorite three bets for the night with a full slate of games on the horizon. Let us know if you’re tailing these bets!
There are plenty of intriguing matchups for today’s MLB slate. Find out where I see value below. I gave out my favorite moneyline, total, and runline bets for the slate!
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Saturday, September 17, 2022 – 07:20 PM EDT at Truist Park
The Phillies led the Braves 2-1 throughout the first game of their series last night. However, the Braves poured on six runs in the 8th inning and earned a win, 7-2 in that game.
The Braves bullpen is much better than Philadelphia’s. But the Phillies might not have to rely on the bullpen tonight.
Aaron Nola will take the hill for the Phillies. He’s 9-11 with a 3.31 ERA. However, in the last 30 days, Nola has had a 2.64 xFIP with 32.2% of strikeouts and 2.6% of walks.
Nola is giving up a little power to lefties, but overall, Nola has looked outstanding, keeping fly balls down.
The Braves are only hitting a .173 ISO and wOBA of .311 against righties over the last 30 days. That same lineup has struck out 27% of the time against righties in that same time frame.
On the flip side, Jake Odorizzi will get the call for the Braves. Odorizzi is 5-5 with a 4.15 ERA on the year. In the last 30 days, he’s holding a 4.48 xFIP. He also hasn’t induced a high rate of ground balls.
The Phillies have hit righties well, hitting a .221 ISO and wOBA of .361 over the last 30 days.
J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott, Nick Maton, and Brandon Marsh are hitting righties at a very consistent rate regarding power and flat-out getting on base.
The Moneyline Pick
Look for the Phillies to earn a win in the second game of the series.
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Saturday, September 17, 2022 - 09:07 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
Los Angeles Angels
The Angels will send out Shohei Ohtani for tonight’s matchup. No matter what he does tonight, it won’t help him earn more votes for the AL MVP.
However, he’s still had a tremendous year. On the mound, he’s 12-8 with a 2.55 ERA. He’s struck out 23.7% of batters over the last 30 days and has limited walks to 7.2%.
Ohtani is giving up some ISO to lefties, but the only two lefties with potential in the Seattle lineup are Cal Raleigh and Jake Lamb, both hitting toward the bottom of the order.
On the other hand, George Kirby will get the start for the Mariners. Kirby is a rookie pitcher with a 7-3 record. He’s got his ERA below 3, at 2.98.
In the last 30 days, his xFIP has been 2.96. He’s struck out 27.8% of batters while only walking 1.3%.
Kirby has also induced 53.6% of ground balls over the last 30 days, with just 14.3% of line drives allowed.
The Over/Under Pick
It’s never fun having to face Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, but if Kirby can escape those two bats, he’ll take on an Angels lineup with so much inconsistency.
I’ll confidently take the Under in this matchup.
MLB Pick: Under 7 (+105) at BetOnline
Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros
Saturday, September 17, 2022 - 07:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
I’ll go for the trifecta. I took the Astros in their first two games against the Athletics against the runline and we cashed them both. So why go away from that?
The Astros will face Cole Irvin, who has an 8-11 record with a 3.73 ERA. However, his xFIP has been sitting at 4.73 over the last 30 days.
Irvin isn’t getting a high rate of ground balls and is giving up 25% of line drives over the previous 30 days.
He will take on an Astros lineup with a .351 wOBA with nearly 31% of line drives against lefties.
On the other hand, Jose Urquidy will take the hill for the Astros. He’s 13-6 with a 3.75 ERA.
His numbers are similar to Irvin's, but he’s taking on an Oakland lineup with a .135 ISO and wOBA of .289 in the last month.
Oakland has also struck out 26.9% of the time against righties over the last 30 days.
The Run Line Pick
I’ll take the Astros on the run line for the third straight night.
MLB Pick: Astros -1.5 (-125) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.