We’ve put together our favorite three bets for the night with a full slate of games on the horizon. Let us know if you’re tailing these bets!
There are plenty of intriguing matchups for today’s MLB slate. Find out where I see value below. I gave out my favorite moneyline, total, and runline bets for the slate!
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Friday, September 16, 2022 – 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
The Seattle Mariners will send out Robbie Ray for tonight’s game. The left-hander has had a 3.88 xFIp over the last 30 days with 28% of strikeouts and 3.4% of walks.
Ray has limited extra-base hits over the last 30 days, and while he typically allows a ton of fly balls, it’s ultimately hard to hit him in the first place.
Ray is 12-9 on the year with a 3.56 ERA. It’s respectable. He’ll take on an Angels lineup that would be awful without Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani.
But even Ohtani has struck out 30% of the time against lefties while Trout has hit just 14.3% of line drives against lefties over the last 30 days.
Los Angeles won’t be able to earn many walks against Ray and have six players earning a wOBA of .316 or lower against lefties in the last 30 days.
Los Angeles Angels
Meanwhile, Michael Lorenzen will take the hill for the Angels. He’s 6-6 with a 4.70 ERA on the year.
He just returned from injury and has thrown against 22 batters since returning. He has an xFIP of 6.89 with 9.1% strikeouts and 18.2% of walks.
The Mariners are hitting a .213 ISO and wOBA of .314 against righties with 9.5% of walks in the last month. They’ve also hit ground balls just 35% of the time in that same time frame.
The Moneyline Pick
The Mariners have way more potential throughout their lineup, going up against the much more inconsistent pitcher.
For my first MLB pick, I’ll take the Mariners to get me the moneyline win tonight.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Friday, September 16, 2022 - 07:20 PM EDT at Truist Park
We’ve got a left-handed pitching duel tonight in Atlanta.
Max Fried will take the mound for the Braves. He’s 13-6 with a 2.50 ERA on the year. He’s pretty much gone under the radar when it comes to National League Cy Young candidates, but he’s been that good this year.
In the last 30 days, Fried has a 3.20 xFIP with 24.3% of strikeouts and 2.6% of walks. He’s also earned 57.35 of ground balls while limiting line drives to 15.9%. It’s also hard to hit fly balls against Fried.
The Phillies are hitting a .152 ISO with 47.3% of ground balls in the last 30 days against lefties. They’ve also struck out 24.3% of the time against lefties and have walked just 6.7% of the time over the last 30 days as a projected lineup.
On the other hand, Ranger Suarez will take the hill for the Phillies. He’s 9-5 with a 3.62 ERA on the year. He hasn’t been as good as Fried, but he can hold his own.
Suarez has a 4.01 xFIP while inducing 61.3% of ground balls. He’s also limited line drives and fly-balls, like Fried has.
The Phillies have potential in the middle of their order. However, Suarez has kept extra-base hits down against both sides of the plate. He walks righties more as a left-handed pitcher, but ultimately, the Braves still have five batters hitting an ISO of .148 or less and a wOBA of .306 or less.
The Over/Under Pick
Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley, Matt Olson, and Travis d’Arnaud have all hit lefties very well, leading me to believe that the Braves will win this game, but they won’t score enough to push this game over.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-105) at BetOnline
Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros
Friday, September 16, 2022 - 08:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
Justin Verlander will make his first start since August 28 for the Houston Astros. He’s currently the AL Cy Young favorite, as he’s holding a 16-3 record with a 1.84 ERA on the season.
Verlander has a 3.18 xFIP in the last 30 days and struck out 33.3% of batters over the time frame.
I don’t expect him to pitch a lot in this game, but if he gives the Astros five or six innings of quality work, the Astros should be able to win this game by a large margin.
Adrian Martinez will take the mound for the Athletics with a 5.59 ERA.
He’s allowing 30% of line drives over the last 30 days and will take on an Astros lineup that has five batters hitting an ISO of at least .204 or higher.
The Run Line Pick
Back the Astros on the run line. We did it last night and cashed it.
MLB Pick: Astros -1.5 (-155) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.