The Phillies and Padres are both unexpected participants in the NLCS. Philadelphia overcame Atlanta in four games and San Diego likewise surprised the Dodgers in four games.
For reasons that I will explain, you should take advantage of the prop betting opportunities offered by Bovada (visit our Bovada Review).
The following information will also help you make informed wagers on the money line and total.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
Tuesday, October 18, 2022 – 08:03 PM EDT at Petco Park
- 5 Inning Winner
- O/U 4.5 Total Runs
I think this is a great prop betting opportunity to attack if you expect a low-scoring 5 innings.
The first-half over/under for this game is 3.5. Therefore, we are getting an extra run in this prop betting option.
First Five Innings
I like the first-half "under" 4.5 and I like the Phillies to win the first 5 innings primarily because of Zack Wheeler.
While Wheeler gave up 3 runs in his last start, which took place in Atlanta, he gave up those runs in the sixth inning as he was stretching his start out to last as many innings as possible.
The Phillies have plenty reason to stretch Wheeler. Wheeler is great while their bullpen is, in terms of ERA, one of baseball's worst.
By focusing on the first 5 innings, we avoid any worry generated by Wheeler trying to last as many innings as possible not to mention the worry merited by Philly's bullpen.
Wheeler's last opponent also provided a uniquely difficult test. Atlanta is a division rival and is therefore a team positioned to be uniquely familiar with Wheeler.
Whereas Atlanta was facing Wheeler for the third time since the end of June and the fourth since near end of May, San Diego has seen him once all year.
The Padres faced Wheeler back on May 18. In that start, Wheeler lasted 7 innings, giving up 4 hits and no runs or walks. He struck out 9.
Wheeler boasts a 1-0 record and 2.12 ERA in three career starts in San Diego's Petco Park.
In addition to being comfortable in the Padres' ballpark, he matches up well against San Diego in view of the pitches that he throws.
Primarily, he favors a fastball, slider, sinker, and curveball. These four pitches make up 98.2% of his arsenal.
San Diego ranks below-average in slugging against these pitches from righties, while generally facing iterations of these pitches that are inferior to Wheeler's.
Wheeler vs. Padres' Batters
Generally, active Padre batters have a poor track record against Wheeler. Only Josh Bell and Juan Soto hit him well, historically speaking, but neither option poses a threat tonight.
Soto has one extra-base hit, a double, in 28 at-bats so far this postseason. Going further, he has 2 extra-base hits in all of October.
Bell's struggles have been more pronounced. He is 3-for-19 (.158) this postseason and has gone four straight games without an extra-base hit. Neither batter shows any evidence of strong form.
I have mixed feelings about Darvish's prospects tonight, and that's why my bet on Philadelphia and the first-half "under" expresses a kind of compromise. On the one hand, Darvish almost never gets hit too hard in an outing.
He has gone 10 straight starts without allowing more than 3 runs in an outing. On August 13, he allowed 4 runs in Washington where the Nationals ballpark often plays small in Summer weather.
Philly batters generally have weak track records against Darvish, but they rank third against his favorite pitches from righties. Moreover, Darvish has been struggling with the long ball. He has allowed at least 1 home run in 4 straight outings.
This is a struggle that Philadelphia can readily exploit: the Phillies rank sixth in home runs per game. So, I think Philadelphia can score off Darvish, but not too many runs so as to threaten this inflated first-half "over."
MLB Pick: Phillies ML + Under 4.5 Runs in 1st Half (+290) at Bovada
Wheeler 16+ Total Outs Recorded
At Bovada, you can find this bet under "Specials." This bet follows from the above information.
He matches up well against Padre batters, enjoys pitching in San Diego, and generally enjoys longer outings.
16 outs, amounting to 5.1 innings, are not a lot for Wheeler to record. So far, this postseason, he lasted 6.1 innings in St. Louis and 6 in Atlanta.
MLB Prop Pick: Wheeler 16+ Total Outs Recorded (-120) at Bovada
Player to Hit a Home Run in the game
The Philly player to hit a home run off Darvish is Rhys Hoskins. He is starting to heat up, going 3-for-8 with a homer in his past two games.
Moreover, he loves facing Darvish. In 16 career at-bats with Darvish on the mound, Hoskins is batting .375 and slugging .688.
If you want to be more cautious with your MLB picks, you can bet on him to earn an RBI, but I perceive more value in the Hoskins home run prop at +350.
MLB Prop Pick: Hoskins to Hit a Home Run (+350) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.