Best MLB Player Props for World Series Game 4: Bryce Harper to Lead the Phillies’ Triumph

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Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies hits a two-run home run against the Houston Astros during Game 3 of the 2022 World Series. Elsa/Getty Images/AFP.

Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s World Series action between the Astros and Phillies.

The Phillies took advantage of the series moving to Philadelphia where they have yet to lose a playoff game this year. After last night’s 7-0 romp, they lead the series 2-1.

For tonight’s game, Cristian Javier starts for Houston and Aaron Nola for Philadelphia. For reasons that I will explain, you should invest in two player props at one of our best sportsbooks.

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Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Wednesday, November 2, 2022 – 08:03 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park

Player to Hit the First Home Run in the Game

For this bet to hit, we need the player we invest in to hit the first home run of tonight's game. While there is the option to bet that no player hits a home run in the game, this option repeatedly seems like a bad one.

Last night, for example, five home runs were hit. In Game 2, one home run was hit. In Game 1, three home runs were hit.

There is too much power on both sides to expect neither team to achieve a home run.

Cristian Javier's Apparently Good Form

In view of his most recent performances, Astros' starter Cristian Javier may seem like an unlikely candidate to surrender a home run. This unlikelihood would be critical in view of the fact that the bet mandates us to select the first batter to hit a home run tonight.

Because the first batter to do so is the one we need to select, we can expect a starting pitcher to give up the home run that decides the bet.

While Javier has been shutting down his last opponents, thus creating the appearance of strong form, he has most recently gotten to start against a Yankees team that has struggled mightily over large parts of the second season and against teams that rank 20th or worse in runs per game. These last teams were Tampa Bay (twice), Baltimore, and anemic Detroit.

Unlike these teams, the Phillies rank seventh in runs per game and, unlike the Yankees when Javier faced them, they couldn't be hotter. Philadelphia's seven-run output last night was just one example of its superb play at home.

Aaron Nola's Current Form

Phillies' starter Aaron Nola may seem particularly likely to give up a home run in view of his past two starts. But Nola has a great recent track record against teams who he sees a second consecutive time when that first time hit him hard.

Most recently, he shut out the Braves over the course of six innings on September 23 after they accrued four runs against him on September 17.

With a nice level of variety in his arsenal and the ability to use his pitches' horizontal and vertical release points to disguise his pitches upon release, Nola remains unpredictable even against lineups that see him over and over again.

Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper is just the player to lead the Phillies' charge.

The left-handed slugger has six home runs this postseason. While he belted a homer last night, he is not immune to hitting home runs in consecutive games. This postseason, his record is three: he has hit a home run in as many as three games in a row.

Over the course of the season, Javier has proven relatively vulnerable to the long ball. He allowed just over one home run per game in the regular season.

Especially at home, where its offense is typically more productive, Philadelphia will hit a home run off him. Harper is the most reasonable option to be the first to do it.

MLB Prop Pick: Bryce Harper to Hit the First Home Run in the Game (+800) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Bryce Harper to Hit the First Home Run in the Game (+800)
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Home Run-Match Winner Parlay

For this wager, we are betting on two things to happen: a certain player to hit a home run and his team to win.

I think Harper is the best option. The odds aren't as nice, because we only need him to hit a home run at some point in the game. Then, we also need Philadelphia to win.

I mentioned some relevant reasons above: the Phillies are undefeated at home in the postseason and the starting pitcher matchup favors them. Know for your MLB picks that another key circumstance favors them.

Because they won in blowout fashion yesterday, they got to conserve their best relievers. Seranthony Dominguez and Jose Alvarado will be fresh to secure Philadelphia's victory.

MLB Parlay Prop Pick: Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run / Philadelphia Phillies to Win (+500) at Bovada

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Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run / Philadelphia Phillies to Win (+500)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.