Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. There are not only a lot of games to consider but also a lot of individual player performances.
Sports betting sites offer player prop betting opportunities that we should take advantage of. With these prop bets in mind, the two games that I wish to focus on are Padres vs. Cardinals and Orioles vs. Red Sox.
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Monday, May 30, 2022 – 02:15 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
Padres vs. Cardinals Prop Bet
- Manny Machado to Hit a Home Run and Padres to Win
Who Pitches for the Cardinals Today?
They are calling up southpaw Packy Naughton from the minors for this game. I content that it is decisive that the Cardinals find themselves at a strong disadvantage for this game in terms of pitching.
Naughton is needed to contribute some innings because the Cardinals have four different pitchers listed on the injury report.
Now, Naughton lacks the endurance to pitch too many innings, however, he will likely have to try. He has typically made appearances in relief for the Cardinals. In his one start, he tried but failed to pitch into and complete the fourth inning.
Packy Naughton's Favorite Pitches
It is tempting to try to have Naughton go deeper into outings because he offers a lot of different pitches in his repertoire. Relievers typically only need to feature a couple of different pitches, but Naughton throws four different ones over 18% frequency:
Variety does not work well for Naughton because he fails to throw any one pitch particularly well. Most problematically, opponents slug well over .500 against his slider, changeup, and fastball.
Both home runs that he allowed this season came in his one start. They came off his fastball and slider.
Who Pitches for the Padres Today?
San Diego enjoys a clear pitching advantage with Nick Martinez, who has yielded a sub-three FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in four of his last five games.
Abstractly similar to Naughton, Martinez enjoys a nice measure of variety in his arsenal.
Nick Martinez's Favorite Pitches
Martinez does not throw a pitch as much as 30% of the time. Moreover, he throws all five of his pitches with over 12% frequency
As evident in his recent string of starts, Martinez derives strong success from his variety of pitches.
MLB Betting Pick
In addition to liking the Padres today given their advantage in starting pitching, I like Manny Machado.
Machado is a killer of left-handed pitching. Six of his eight homers have come off left-handed pitching, which helps explain why he slugs .818 against lefties this year.
He is thus a great candidate to hit a home run today.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
Monday, May 30, 2022 – 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
Orioles vs. Red Sox Prop Bet
- Rafael Devers to Record an RBI
Will Boston Score a Lot Today?
In general, one should expect Boston to score a lot nowadays. In their past five games, the Red Sox have amassed a total of 43 runs.
They will start their scoring early today because they match up superbly against Orioles starter Tyler Wells.
Against Wells's favorite four pitches from righties, they rank second in slugging.
MLB Betting Pick
With our MLB picks in mind, I like Rafael Devers to get at least one RBI for Boston today. In order for him to get this RBI, he'll probably need to have plenty of opportunities to hit with guys on base.
He'll have these opportunities against Orioles pitching. Moreover, he'll obviously want to accrue some hits.
Devers has been extraordinarily reliable this month. In May, Devers has recorded a hit in all but three games. His BA in this month is .387 while he is slugging .730 in May. Expect this Devers RBI prop to cash because he'll get hits with guys on base today.
MLB Prop Pick: Rafael Devers to Record an RBI (+120) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.