We’ve put together our favorite prop bets for Saturday’s Championship Series slate. Let us know if you’re tailing these bets!
There are many two matchups in today’s MLB odds board:
- Astros vs. Yankees
- Padres vs. Phillies
Read on to find out where I see value below. Let’s jump into my favorite player prop picks for the day!
Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees
Saturday, October 22, 2022 – 05:07 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
The New York Yankees are already down 2-0 in the ALCS against the Houston Astros, but the series isn’t over just yet.
As long as the Yankees win their games at home, they’ll have a chance at earning an upset on the road at a World Series bid.
Astros Prop Pick: Cristian Javier
The Yankees will face Cristian Javier of the Astros. They’ve already had nightmares about Javier after he’s shut them down multiple times, allowing a .75 ERA in 12 innings pitched. He’s struck out 16 batters in those 12 innings and allowed just two hits and five walks during that time frame.
The Yankees have struck out 28.4% of the time against righties over the last 30 days using their projected lineup. Only Anthony Rizzo and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (if he even plays) have struck out under 23.5% against righties.
Meanwhile, Cristian Javier has struck out 39.5% of the batters over the last 30 days. He’s allowed some power to righties, giving up an ISO of .250 but overall, he’s been tough to hit.
The Yankees haven’t earned more than six hits in any postseason game yet. The offense isn’t stringing together hits. They’re a boom-or-bust offense that has already struggled to hit against the Astros’ other starters.
For our first MLB pick, I will look at Cristian Javier’s strikeout total when the line comes out. As long as the Astros pitch Javier five innings, I think we’ll see at least seven strikeouts from Javier.
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Saturday, October 22, 2022 - 07:45 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
Unlike the game above, I’m expecting runs. Mike Clevinger will get the start for the Padres. He’s holding a 13.50 ERA in the postseason and has an xFIP of 4.99 over the last 30 days.
Clevinger has only struck out 14% of batters and has allowed nearly 23% of line drives with under 35% of strikeouts in that same 30-day time frame.
Lefties have a .200 ISO, but righties are hitting a .483 wOBA and ISO of .324. Clevinger has been terrible against righties and is still giving up solid power to lefties.
The Phillies are hitting a .179 ISO and wOBA of .303 against righties over the last 30 days. Those are about average numbers. But against a below-average pitcher, we should see plenty of success out of this lineup.
Phillies Prop Picks
Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper
Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are two lefties who have power and have also crushed righties.
Schwarber has a .480 ISO and woBA of .457, while Harper is hitting a .271 ISO and wOBA of .360 over the last 30 days against righties.
MLB Pick: Bryce Harper 2+ Total Bases (-110) at BetOnline
Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto
Rhys Hoskins is a right-handed hitter, but he’s also got a .242 ISO against righties while hitting 31% of line drives when he makes contact against righties.
Meanwhile, J.T. Realmuto is another righty with power against righties. He’s also hitting 27.6% of line drives over the last 30 days against righties.
MLB Pick: Rhys Hoskins 1+ Hit (-185) at BetOnline
MLB Pick: J.T. Realmuto 1+ Hit (-200) at BetOnline
Padres Prop Pick: Manny Machado
Even Brandon Marsh, who will be batting ninth, has a .222 ISO and wOBA of .365 with 27.6% of line drives against righties over the last 30 days. We’re going to see runs from Philadelphia tonight.
On the other hand, the Phillies will pitch Bailey Falter and likely follow him up with Noah Syndergaard. Falter is a lefty who has allowed a .333 ISO to his last nine lefties and a .401 wOBA to his last 36 righties.
Falter will likely face the Padres through one time in the batting order. Manny Machado has hit a .320 ISO and wOBA of .485, while Wil Myers has slugged a .558 ISO and wOBA of .590 against his last 21 lefties faced.
Machado is the natural lefty killer, hitting 50% of line drives in 28 at-bats against lefties.
MLB Pick: Manny Machado 2+ Total Bases (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.