Best MLB Player Props for September 22 Include Fading Aaron Judge

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Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees waits on the field after making the final out at the end of the 3rd inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Jamie Squire/Getty Images/AFP

No question that all eyes in MLB right now are on Aaron Judge as he pursues the American League home run record and the Triple Crown, but we don’t love him tonight against Boston.

Here are today’s player prop picks with odds from BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), one of our top-rated sportsbooks.

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St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres

Thursday, September 22, 2022 – 04:10 PM EDT at Petco Park

Paul Goldschmidt 

  • Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases

If these teams play again after Thursday afternoon, it would be in the National League playoffs, and that’s very possible as the Cardinals are going to win the NL Central and be the third seed, meaning it would play the third and final Wild-Card team in the Wild-Card series. San Diego holds the second NL Wild-Card spot but by just 1.5 games over No. 3 Philadelphia. 

San Diego’s Joe Musgrove is having a fine season at 10-7 with a 3.16 ERA and got a fat extension not long ago but has a 4.43 ERA since the All-Star break.

The Cardinals’ Paul Goldschmidt, the -3500 lock at the top books to win NL MVP, is a stellar 10-for-18 career off Musgrove with two doubles and a homer. 

MLB Prop Pick: Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140) at BetOnline

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Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140)
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Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees

Thursday, September 22, 2022 – 07:15 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium

Aaron Judge

  • Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs

This opens to be the last series of the season between these bitter rivals – and FOX has the telecast. Why on earth is FOX televising a baseball game opposite Steelers-Browns Thursday night NFL? Maybe just because of Aaron Judge, as he remains at 60 homers, one shy of tying Roger Maris’ American League record.

While it’s all but a lock that Judge will break Maris’ record barring getting hurt tonight, I’m skeptical whether he will win the AL Triple Crown. Judge will win the home run and RBI titles, but he’s tied at .317 with Boston’s Xander Bogaerts for the batting average crown. I would favor Bogaerts there simply as he’s a better contact hitter.

I’m not sure if I’ve seen a price as cheap at the MLB odds as -280 for a player NOT to homer, so we’ll take it tonight on Judge, even though he’s having a historic September. He is 0-for-14 career with nine strikeouts off Red Sox pitcher Michael Wacha (11-1, 2.61 ERA).

MLB Prop Pick: Judge Under 0.5 Home Runs (-280) at BetOnline

Anthony Rizzo and Michael Wacha

  • Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases
  • Over/Under 0.5 Walks

On the flip side, teammate Anthony Rizzo owns Wacha, batting .420 in 50 at-bats with three homers and two doubles. 

Wacha was a reclamation project signing by the Red Sox this past offseason on a one-year, $7 million deal, and the right-hander is going to make a lot more next offseason as he has been terrific.

Control has been key as Wacha hasn’t walked more than one batter in his past seven outings.  

MLB Prop Pick: Rizzo Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125) at BetOnline

MLB Prop Pick: Wacha Under 1.5 Walks (-180) at BetOnline

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Wacha Under 1.5 Walks (-180)
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Thursday, September 22, 2022 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium

Julio Urias

  • Over/Under 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed

This is the only late-night game on Thursday and the last meeting of the season between the NL West rivals – Arizona can actually win the five-game series tonight. The Diamondbacks might be pretty good next year, be aware. At this point, though, the Dodgers have essentially nothing to play for.  

Still, I like LA lefty Julio Urias on the mound. He is up to a +750 second favorite at BMR’s top-rated books to win the NL Cy Young and won’t be catching Miami’s Sandy Alcantara (-475), but Urias has been the best pitcher in the Senior Circuit since the All-Star break.

In 10 second-half starts, he is 9-1 with a 1.31 ERA – eight starts with at least five strikeouts -- and he's holding opposing hitters to just a .169 average. In his career, he is 7-1 with a 1.54 ERA in 46.2 innings against the Diamondbacks. 

MLB Prop Pick: Urias Under 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+110) at BetOnline

Max Muncy and Cody Bellinger

  • Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases

It's ace Zac Gallen (12-3, 2.52 ERA) for the Snakes, and he has been nearly as good as Urias since the break. I’m not going to recommend him against the stellar Dodgers lineup, but will fade Max Muncy as he’s 1-for-14 career off Gallen with six strikeouts.

Let’s fade Cody Bellinger, too, as he’s 1-for-15 off Gallen.  

MLB Prop Pick: Muncy Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105) at BetOnline

MLB Prop Pick: Bellinger Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145) at BetOnline

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Bellinger Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.