Yordan Alvarez of the Houston Astros isn’t going to win AL MVP, but he’ll get some votes for it and could finish as high as second.
No one in MLB is hotter right now. Here are today’s player props for these exciting matchups:
- Astros vs. Rays
- Mets vs. Brewers
Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Monday, September 19, 2022 – 06:40 PM EDT at Tropicana Field
This could very well be an American League Division Series preview, but there still likely won’t even be 10,000 in attendance tonight at the dump that is Tropicana Field.
Houston is going to finish with the AL’s best record and thus will get a bye into the ALDS. It would then face either the winner of the two worst AL Wild-Card teams.
Right now, that’s Tampa Bay and Seattle as they would meet in the best-of-3 Wild-Card series.
I’m going to somewhat contradict myself here in taking a prop on Rays pitcher Drew Rasmussen yet also recommending a hitting prop on Houston Astros star Yordan Alvarez.
- Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
Rasmussen is 6-1 with a 1.97 ERA in 11 home starts this year with batters hitting .178 off him. He is 5-2 overall with a 2.17 ERA in 10 starts since the All-Star break.
The right-hander will be making his second career start against the Astros, as on Sept. 29, 2021 at Minute Maid Park, he threw five scoreless innings.
Rasmussen retired his first 13 batters before yielding a one-out single to Yuli Gurriel in the fifth, his only baserunner allowed.
MLB Prop Pick: Rasmussen Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-165) at BetOnline
- Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases
Alvarez is 0-for-2 career off him but over the past seven days is hitting an absurd .520 with five homers.
We think Rasmussen keeps him in the park, but all we need is a double, and Alvarez had two of those Sunday against Oakland.
He was dominant during the Astros' four-game set against the A’s by racking up seven extra-base hits over 17 at-bats.
MLB Prop Pick: Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) at BetOnline
New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Monday, September 19, 2022 - 07:40 PM EDT at American Family Field
This is the pitching matchup of the night between former Cy Young winners Max Scherzer of the Mets and Corbin Burnes of the Brewers, and also could be a playoff preview.
The Mets are getting into the NL postseason field, it’s just a matter of whether they do as NL East champion or Wild Card team. The Brewers have work to do as they are two games behind the final NL Wild Card spot held by Philadelphia.
- Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts
Scherzer (9-4, 2.26 ERA) will make his first start since September 3 due to an oblique injury that landed him on the injured list, and oblique injuries are really tricky, especially for a pitcher with all the torque on their bodies.
I don’t think New York manager Buck Showalter is going to let Scherzer go incredibly deep in the game, and there’s always the chance of reaggravating the issue.
He made a rehab start last Wednesday for Triple-A Syracuse. Scherzer pitched 3.2 innings, giving up one run on three hits while striking out seven. He threw 59 pitches, 41 of which were strikes. The team needs to ensure his health for the postseason. New York can clinch its first playoff berth since 2016 with a win.
MLB Prop Pick: Scherzer Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+130) at BetOnline
- Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts
- Over/Under 0.5 First Inning Runs
Burnes (10-7, 2.97 ERA) has been as dominant as he was last year, but he's also had some clunker games. He did strike out 14 batters two starts ago vs. the Giants but otherwise hasn’t had more than six Ks in his past seven outings.
New York batters have struck out 1,112 times this season, the fourth fewest in the majors.
MLB Prop Pick: Burnes Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110) at BetOnline
MLB Prop Pick: Burnes Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-185) at BetOnline
Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo
- Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases
- Over/Under 0.5 Hits
Francisco Lindor is an All-Star shortstop, but Burnes eats his lunch as Lindor is 1-for-12 career off him with eight strikeouts.
Brandon Nimmo has had success vs. Burnes, though, going 5-for-9 with a double and triple. These guys usually hit much better in their home park, but Nimmo is batting .306 on the road compared to .221 at Citi Field.
MLB Prop Pick: Lindor Under 0.5 Total Bases (+135) at BetOnline
MLB Prop Pick: Nimmo Over 0.5 Hits (-175) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.