NL Cy Young favorite Sandy Alcantara is on the mound for the Marlins, so you know we have to address him.
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
Friday, July 29, 2022 – 06:40 PM EDT at loanDepot Park
Mets vs. Marlins: What You Should Know
Just like whenever Shohei Ohtani pitches for the Angels, we always write about Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins when he’s on the mound (as long as it’s Monday-Friday). Alcantara is the clear-cut -175 favorite at the top-rated books to become the first Marlins pitcher to win the NL Cy Young Award.
Let me say one thing first, though: I don’t recommend backing Miami to win this game (Alcantara is +170 to personally get a W) simply as the Marlins’ offense is really bad right now due to missing so many injured guys.
The Marlins also had to play Thursday and travel back home, while the Mets were off. Thus, the MLB odds might not favor them, so this feels something like a 3-2 Mets win (with New York scoring the third run off the Marlins bullpen).
Marlins Prop Bet: Sandy Alcantara
- Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
- Over/Under 5.5 Hits Allowed
Alcantara’s 1.81 ERA is the lowest among NL starters and third-lowest in club history through the first 20 starts of a season, behind Josh Johnson (1.62 in 2010) and Kevin Brown (1.76 in 1996).
Batters are hitting just .187 off him. He leads the majors with 144.1 innings pitched and tied a club record with 13 straight starts of seven innings pitched before “only” going six last Sunday at Pittsburgh.
In nine of his starts this year, Alcantara has pitched at least seven innings and held his opponent to 1 or 0 earned runs, the most in MLB.
Against the Mets this year, he’s 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA in 22 innings. He faced them most recently on July 10 at Citi Field and threw seven shutout innings.
MLB Prop Pick: Alcantara Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-150) at BetOnline
MLB Prop Pick: Alcantara Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-105) at BetOnline
Mets Prop Bet: Pete Alonso and Eduardo Escobar
- Pete Alonso: Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases
- Eduardo Escobar: Over/Under 0.5 Hits
Mets slugger Pete Alonso is red hot and throwing his name into the NL MVP race. We won a hitting prop on him earlier this week against the Yankees.
Alonso is on a six-game hitting streak and batting 11-for-20 (.550) with two home runs, three doubles, seven RBIs and five runs scored in that span. However, the All-Star first baseman is just 5-for-27 career off Alcantara with seven strikeouts.
Eduardo Escobar also struggles off Alcantara, going 2-for-18.
MLB Prop Pick: Alonso Under 1.5 Total Bases (-190) at BetOnline
MLB Prop Pick: Escobar Under 0.5 Hits (+115) at BetOnline
Mets Prop Bet: Francisco Lindor
- Over/Under 0.5 Hits
One Mets All-Star who does have good splits off Alcantara is Francisco Lindor, who is 7-for-22 with two doubles, a homer, and six RBIs.
MLB Prop Pick: Lindor Over 0.5 Hits (-220) at BetOnline
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees
Friday, July 29, 2022 - 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
Royals vs. Yankees: What You Should Know
It’s a coincidence that I’m picking both games involving New York teams today – I actually despise them both.
I also think the Yankees’ Gerrit Cole is overrated and vastly overpaid, but fully expect him to dominate tonight against an incredibly weak Kansas City lineup that hasn’t scored a run since Monday (three straight games being shut out) and traded away arguably its best overall player, outfielder Andrew Benintendi, to the Yankees on Wednesday night.
The Royals are looking to avoid being shut out in four straight games for the second time in team history, which also happened from Aug. 25-28, 2017.
Since 2004, only 21 times has a team been shut out in three straight games.
Yankees Prop Bet: Gerrit Cole
- Over/Under 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed
- To Record A Win
I’m not going to predict a blanking, but I will be shocked if Cole (9-3, 3.09 ERA) allows more than one earned run while he’s in there.
The right-hander has been quite a bit better at home this year with a 2.09 ERA compared to 4.28 away. Cole is 3-1 with an 0.79 ERA and 47 strikeouts in 34 innings during his past five home starts.
He pitched in Kansas City on April 30, back when the Royals actually had a major-league lineup, and didn’t allow a run over six innings.
MLB Prop Pick: Cole Under 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+130) at BetOnline
MLB Prop Pick: Cole to Record a Win (-145) at BetOnline
Yankees Prop Bet: Andrew Benintendi
- Over/Under 0.5 Runs Scored
Benintendi might have been trying a bit too hard in his Yankees debut Thursday against his former teammates as he was 0-for-4 with a strikeout, but I fully expect him to get on base at least once tonight against Kris Bubic (2-6, 5.53 ERA) and score a run.
MLB Prop Pick: Benintendi Over 0.5 Runs (+115) at BetOnline
Yankees Prop Bet: Josh Donaldson
- Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs
Let’s try a Josh Donaldson home run prop as well even though the former AL MVP is struggling with a .223 average and nine homers.
He’s batting .217 with three dingers in July but is 3-for-11 with two solo homers off Bubic's career.
MLB Prop Pick: Donaldson for a Home Run (+250) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.