We might see some sloppy baseball for the next few weeks ahead of the All-Star break (July 19th) as many guys have hit a wall by this point and need a few days off.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins
Tuesday, July 05, 2022 – 06:40 PM EDT at loanDepot park
- Over/Under 20.5 Outs Recorded
- Over/Under 5.5 Hits Allowed
Marlins ace and NL Cy Young betting favorite Sandy Alcantara is on the mound tonight and I’m playing him. When I do, we usually win. The right-hander is simply a machine at 8-3 with a 1.95 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.
Alcantara was named NL Pitcher of the Month for June, during which he compiled a:
- 3-1 record
- A 1.89 ERA across six starts
- 34 strikeouts across 47.2 innings
His 1.95 season ERA is the third-lowest mark among MLB pitchers behind the Dodgers’ Tony Gonsolin (1.54) and Rays’ Shane McClanahan (1.77). It's also the third-lowest in club history through the first 16 starts of a season.
Sandy Alcantara Is on a Hot Streak
Alcantara comes off his fifth career complete game and second of the season last Wednesday in St. Louis. He’s the only pitcher in MLB with multiple complete games this year. Over his last 10 starts, he's:
- A 6-1 record
- A 1.47 ERA
- Allowed only 49 hits and 13 earned runs over 79.2 innings
He has allowed more than two earned runs just once (June 24 vs. the Mets) over the span.
The Dominican has thrown at least 7.0 innings in 10 straight starts, the longest stretch by an MLB pitcher in a single season since Rick Porcello and Clayton Kershaw in 2016 (11 in a row) and the longest by a Marlins pitcher since Carl Pavano (13 straight in 2004).
Finally, Alcantara’s eight wins prior to the All-Star break match Mark Buehrle (2012) and Ricky Nolasco (2012) for the second-most by a Marlins pitcher since the team moved to Miami in 2012, behind only Jose Fernandez (11 in 2016). Only a few Angels have seen Alcantara.
MLB Prop Pick: Sandy Alcantara Outs Recorded Over 20.5 (-135) at BetOnline
MLB Prop Pick: Sandy Alcantara Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-110) at BetOnline
- Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases
It also might be wise to do a stolen base prop tonight in a rarity as Miami’s Jon Berti leads the majors with 25 thefts and if he gets on base almost surely will be running against Angels starter Noah Syndergaard, who has allowed an MLB-high 20 steals.
Syndergaard is a big dude with a slow delivery, so he always has been susceptible to stolen bases dating to his heyday with the Mets.
MLB Prop Pick: Jon Berti Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+115) at BetOnline
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds
Tuesday, July 05, 2022 - 06:40 PM EDT at Great American Ball Park
- Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts
That the New York Mets are battling for the best record in the National League despite having their pitching staff gutted with injuries to co-aces Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom should scare the rest of the Senior Circuit. Those two of course have combined for five Cy Young Awards – neither will win it this year simply as they have missed too much time.
While deGrom still might be a week or so from his Mets return, Scherzer is back tonight in Cincinnati. The 37-year-old Scherzer was anchoring the Mets staff at 5-1 with a 2.54 ERA in eight starts before suffering an oblique injury. Scherzer made two recent rehab appearances for Double-A Binghamton, where he built up to 80 pitches.
He also did a cool thing by spending $7,000 on steak and lobster for the Binghamton players as a treat. Minor leaguers basically live on the poverty line.
Max Scherzer on a Pitch Count
Look, Scherzer is a stud, but 7.5 strikeouts seem like a lot in his first big-league start in about six weeks. The Mets aren’t going to let him throw like 100 pitches -- SNY reported that Scherzer said: “that he’ll potentially go around six innings and 90 pitches, but it will depend on how he feels.”
If Scherzer has one inning in which he has a high pitch count, he could have a really short outing. The Mets won't push him and set him back.
MLB Prop Pick: Max Scherzer Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-150) at BetOnline
- Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases
Not many Cincinnati Reds batters have good splits off Scherzer, but especially Tommy Pham as he’s 3-for-20 with nine strikeouts off him. In theory, the Reds might rest Pham tonight because he struggles vs. Scherzer, but they are a bit banged up so not sure that’s an option.
Pham was 0-for-4 in Monday’s 7-4 series-opening loss to New York and is hitting .247 against right-handed pitching this year. Very nice price on the under for Pham’s total bases tonight – remember, walks don’t count for our MLB picks.
MLB Prop Pick: Tommy Pham Under 0.5 Total Bases (+141) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.