Best MLB Player Prop Bets for July 21

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The second half of the 2022 MLB season kicks off with six games Thursday, but a few early matinees we will steer clear of with the quick turnaround after publication.

Here are today’s player props and expert picks with odds from BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), one of BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks. 

Making up for Lost Time

Bit of a shorter piece today because there are only six games and a few of them are matinees that we really can’t touch on because they start so early.  Plus, one of the night games, Yankees-Astros Game 2, doesn’t have a scheduled New York pitcher as of this writing so it makes things difficult to pick for that one.

We have a couple of doubleheaders today as MLB is making up some of the games lost in the original first week of the season when that was pushed back a bit due to the lockout

Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) has an interesting MLB prop where Oakland ace Frankie Montas will be playing after the August 2 Trade Deadline: The A’s are -145 favorites, but that’s the book simply protecting itself. Barring injury, it would be a stunner if Montas is still with Oakland after August 2. The Twins are +325 favorites to be his next team, followed by the Mets (+350), Cardinals (+400), Dodgers (+900) and Red Sox (+1200).  

I actually agree that Minnesota should be favored as it’s an all-in type season for the Twins because big-ticket free-agent shortstop Carlos Correa is likely to opt out of his contract this offseason and head right back to the open market.  

Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics – Game 2

Thursday, July 21, 2022 – 07:07 PM EDT at Oakland Coliseum

Frankie Montas

  • Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts

The 29-year-old Montas, under team control through the year, is 3-9 despite a 3.26 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 17 starts. Oakland is 3-14 in those starts because he gets among the worst run support in the majors. In fact, among pitchers still in the majors, Montas has been the least profitable of them all at -1078. (There is one who has been even worse but he’s currently in the minors.) 

This will be massively important for Montas’ trade value because it’s the first time he has taken the mound since leaving his July 3 start due to what the team later announced as shoulder inflammation. That’s obviously a huge red flag. If he leaves this one early, the A’s almost can’t trade him.

If Montas dominates, though, it wouldn’t surprise me if tonight is his final start in an Oakland uniform. Montas should have little trouble against a Tigers lineup that ranks last in baseball with a 75 wRC+ and .267 wOBA. Detroit is batting just .229 overall.  

There aren’t many props up right now because this is the second game of a DH so we are going to project what they will be. Montas has 100 strikeouts in 96.2 innings and has struck out at least seven the past two times he has lasted at least six innings – which I believe he will tonight.  

MLB prop pick: Frankie Montas Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-140) at BetOnline

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Frankie Montas Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)
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Miguel Cabrera

  • Over/Under 0.5 Hits

Look, Montas isn’t getting a no-hitter, so we will back Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera to get a knock as he’s 2-for-4 with two doubles career off Montas.

Obviously, make sure Cabrera is playing both ends of the doubleheader.  

MLB prop pick: Miguel Cabrera Over 0.5 Hits (-210) at BetOnline

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Miguel Cabrera Over 0.5 Hits (-210)
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San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 

Thursday, July 21, 2022 – 10:09 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium 

This is the only “series” opener of Thursday. There are two doubleheaders and then those series are over, and Texas visits Miami for just one game before flying to California.

Again, the schedule is weird today because MLB is trying to make up the lost games in the first week of the season to the lockout. Otherwise, Giants-Dodgers on ESPN likely would have been the only game today. 

Carlos Rodon

  • Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts
  • No Run First Inning Allowed

All-Star lefty Carlos Rodon (8-5, 2.66 ERA, 131 strikeouts) is on the mound for San Francisco. He was actually replaced on the NL All-Star roster for Tuesday’s Midsummer Classic at Dodger Stadium because Rodon was dealing with a split nail and a blood blister on his pitching hand following his last start when he allowed one run with seven strikeouts vs. Milwaukee last Thursday.

Rodon has struck out at least seven batters in six of his past seven starts, and he is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 11 strikeouts in 12 innings this year vs. Los Angeles.  

Rodon has been spectacular on a no-run first inning prop this season at 15-2, including 8-1 on the road. He has not allowed a first-inning run in either start vs. the Dodgers. 

MLB prop pick: Carlos Rodon Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-159) at BetOnline

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Carlos Rodon Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-159)
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MLB prop pick: Carlos Rodon No Runs First Inning (-330) at BetOnline

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Carlos Rodon No Runs First Inning (-330)
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Mookie Betts

  • Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases

Betts is a spectacular player and NL MVP candidate for LA, but the MLB odds may not be as favorable, as Betts is an ugly 1-for-17 career off Rodon.

Betts hasn’t been great in July, with a .226 average, 14 strikeouts and only seven extra-base hits in 53 at-bats. 

MLB prop pick: Mookie Betts Under 1.5 Total Bases (-159) at BetOnline

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Mookie Betts Under 1.5 Total Bases (-159)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.