Best Bets for MLB American League Division Yankees vs. Guardians Game 3

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Triston McKenzie #24 of the Cleveland Guardians delivers a pitch against the Chicago White Sox. Michael Reaves/Getty Images/AFP

With the Yankees and Guardians struggling offensively, is there any hope for runs in tonight’s ALDS matchup between the Yankees and Guardians?

Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks!

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New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

Saturday, October 15, 2022 – 07:37 PM EDT at Progressive Field

The Cleveland Guardians stole one against the New York Yankees, winning 4-2 in extra innings yesterday.

The Guardians will have two home games, looking to squeeze past the Yankees on their home field to earn an ALCS spot. However, the Guardians have almost scored the same amount of runs in extra innings as they’ve scored in the first nine innings in the postseason.

On the other hand, the Yankees have been inconsistent in hitting the ball. That’s mainly due to Aaron Judge, who has seven strikeouts to start his postseason. Judge essentially led the team in every category to help the Yankees reach the postseason.

Here are our picks and predictions for tonight’s game between the New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians.


Triston McKenzie Gets Start for Guardians

Triston McKenzie has really grown as a pitcher this year. He’ll get the start for the Guardians after going 11-11 with a 2.96 ERA in the regular season.

McKenzie is a right-handed pitcher with a 2.78 xFIP over the last 30 days. He’s struck out 32.2% of batters and has walked just 2.5%.

On top of that, he’s earned nearly 48% of ground balls and has limited line drives to 10.4%.

McKenzie vs. Lefties

He’s allowed some power to lefties, with an ISO of .159, but that number is still above average in the MLB.

The Yankees have two lefties in the lineup. Anthony Rizzo and Oswaldo Cabrera. Both have hit for power over the last 30 days against righties. So that’s something to look out for.

Still, the Yankees have struck out 26.2% of the time against righties over the last 30 days with their projected lineup. McKenzie should deal with this Yankees team.


Luis Severino Gets Call for Yankees

On the flip side, Luis Severino will get the call for the Yanks. He’s faced 56 batters over the last 30 days for the Yankees and has an xFIP of 3.57 in that time frame.

Severino is a righty that has also earned over 30% of strikeouts. Walks can get a little high, but he’s also been able to earn 52% of grounders while allowing under 15% of line drives.

It’s tough to hit extra-base hits against Severino. Meanwhile, the Guardians aren’t known for hitting. They’ve got a .139 ISO against righties as a projected lineup over the last 30 days.

Cleveland might be able to put the ball in play more against Severino, as they’ve struck out 17.6% of the time with their projected lineup.

Guardians Offense vs. Severino

Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, and Josh Naylor are the only four hitters with potential against righties regarding power.

Cleveland only has two more runs scored in nine innings than in extra. This isn’t an offense you want to back, especially against a pitcher like Severino, who has limited hard contact, keeps fly balls down, and earns a heavy amount of strikeouts.

The Guardians have earned nearly 8% of walks over the last 30 days and still have a wOBA of .307 with 21.2% of line drives mixed in.

But Severino should earn a high rate of strikeouts and keep balls from being in play.


Prediction and Picks

Neither offense will be impressive tonight. It’s going to be a pitching duel between Triston McKenzie and Luis Severino. These are two rising pitchers who will be pure aces in the next couple of seasons.

They’ve both struck out over 30% of batters over the last 30 days. They’ve both earned a high amount of grounders and have given up a limited amount of line drives.

It’s only right to back the pitching duel in this one. Cleveland can’t hit, and when Aaron Judge is struggling, the Yankees struggle to hit.

Let’s back the Under 6.5 and take Triston McKenzie’s strikeout prop of over 5.5 strikeouts.

MLB Pick: Under 6.5 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Under 6.5 (-105)
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MLB Pick: Triston McKenzie Over 5.5 K’s (-165) at BetOnline

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Triston McKenzie Over 5.5 K’s (-165)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.