The Houston Astros are one win away from earning another World Series bid. Can they get the job done, on the road, against the New York Yankees in Yankee Stadium?
Our Game 4 best bets here. Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks!
Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees
Sunday, October 23, 2022 – 07:07 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
The Astros have won the first three games over the Yankees and now need one more to win the best-of-seven ALCS.
New York’s come back from a 3-0 deficit before. But the probability that they will is very slim. The Yankees would need to win each of their next four games against an Astros team that has shut them down in all three games to start the series.
Can the Yankees pile up wins, starting in Game 4?
Lance McCullers Will Get Start for Astros
Lance McCullers will take the mound looking to push Houston into the World Series. He’s got a 0.00 ERA in the postseason and a 2.63 xFIP over the last 30 days.
McCullers has struck out 27.3% of batters while walking just 6.8%. In the last 30 days, he’s induced 62.5% of ground balls and has allowed just 12.5% of line drives.
Struggling vs. Lefties
The right-hander has struggled against lefties a little bit, giving up a .381 wOBA and ISO of .211 against his last 21 left-handed batters. However, he’s been dominant against righties, allowing no extra-base hits in his last 23 plate appearances to them.
The Yankees should have three lefties in the lineup against McCullers. It would be:
- Anthony Rizzo
- Matt Carpenter
- Oswald Peraza
The lefties have averaged a .235 ISO and wOBA of .358 against righties over the last 30 days. It’s because of Anthony Rizzo and Oswaldo Cabrera. It’s certainly not from Matt Carpenter who has struck out every at-bat in the postseason.
The Yankees will count on those lefties in this game. As a lineup, New York has hit a .170 ISO and wOBA of .294 against righties, which is just not going to cut it in the postseason.
Nestor Cortes Gets Call for Yankees
Nestor Cortes will look to help the Yankees get back on track. He’s a lefty with a 2.70 ERA in the postseason.
In the last 30 days, Cortes has a 3.21 xFIP with 25.3% of strikeouts. The lefty has walked 9.2% of batters but has a BABIP of .179, which is outstanding. He’s not going to induce a high amount of grounders but has limited line drives to 16.7% over the last month.
Cortes has limited extra-base hits and has kept his wOBA down against both sides of the plate. However, he’s got a challenge against this Astros lineup.
Walking on Pitchers
Houston has hit a .203 ISO and wOBA of .385 over the last 30 days against lefties. Only Kyle Tucker and Aledmys Diaz have low wOBA against lefties over the last month.
The projected lineup has only struck out 9.4% of the time with 10.3% of walks. This lineup has literally walked more than struck out over the last 30 days against lefties. They’ve also hit 23.9% of line drives.
Astros vs. Yankees Best Bets
At this point, the Yankees are toast. They haven’t had more than six hits in any game in the postseason. Every night they’re facing an ace and it seems they can never catch a break.
The Yankees had to face Cleveland and Houston. Both of those teams just have endless rotation depth of stars. New York can’t hit consistently enough.
Meanwhile, the Astros have had so much success over the last month against lefties. It’s a small sample size but they’ve been able to dominate. Cortes is a great pitcher and could keep the Astros off-balanced. But the Yankees just don’t have enough offense to help their pitchers right now.
The Astros are way more clutch and getting offense from guys that you don’t expect it from. Therefore, I’m going to back the Astros and the Under 6.5 in this game for my MLB picks. The Yankees’ season will finish while the Houston Astros will earn another World Series bid.
For most fans, the Astros vs. Yankees ALCS was the worst possibility since most hate these two teams. But what’s fair is fair. The Astros have been the better team and will finish off tonight as the best in the AL.
Again, give me the Astros and the Under 6.5, which are both at +100.
MLB Pick: Under 6.5 (+100) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.