Astros vs. Mets MLB Predictions for June 28

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Jose Altuve #27 of the Houston Astros hits a first inning home run against the New York Yankees. Al Bello/Getty Images/AFP

The New York Mets will welcome the Houston Astros to Citi Field, looking for redemption after losing a two-game series to Houston in their home.

Can the Mets start the week off with a win? Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks!

Houston Astros vs. New York Mets

Tuesday, June 28, 2022 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field

Mets vs. Astros Series Recap

The New York Mets lost a two-game series on the road to the Houston Astros last week. Now the Mets will get their two home games against the Astros and look to return the favor.

The Astros are coming off a series split against the Yankees on the road while the Mets added another series win over the Miami Marlins on the road over the weekend.

Can the Mets notch a win over the Astros in the first game of another two-game series against the Astros? Here are our betting picks and predictions for tonight’s game between the Mets and Astros.

Who Is Pitching for the Mets Today?

The Mets will send out Carlos Carrasco for tonight’s game. Carrasco’s last start was a brutal one, after allowing five runs to the Astros in just 2.1 innings pitched.

He left with an injury but is all good and will pitch tonight’s game. Carrasco is 8-3 with a 4.42 ERA on the season. But in the last 30 days, he has a 4.16 xFIP with 26.7% of strikeouts.

Carrasco has always had trouble limiting home runs in his career. In the last 30 days, he has allowed an ISO of .347 to lefties and a .218 ISO to righties.

Who Is Pitching for the Astros Today?

Meanwhile, Framber Valdez will get the start for the Astros. The left-handed pitcher has a 7-3 record with a 2.90 ERA on the season.

In the last 30 days, Valdez has had a 3.75 xFIP with nearly 25% of strikeouts. He’s also induced 71.1% of groundballs while allowing just 12% of line drives when balls are hit into play. That’s incredible.

Astros Lineup Analysis

Currently, I believe the Astros are the best team in baseball. The lineup is scary against righties. Houston has a .193 ISO and wOBA of .348 in the last 30 days against righties with 27.1% of line drives hit.

Houston also minimizes strikeouts to 16.8% while earning 10.2% of walks with their projected lineup in the last 30 days.

Currently, Yordan Alvarez has a .452 ISO and wOBA of .558 against righties in the last 30 days. He has a couple of homers off Carrasco already through one game.

Mets Lineup Analysis

Meanwhile, the Mets have a .167 ISO and wOBA of .337 against lefties in the last 30 days. The Mets, like the Astros, have hit 25.4% of line drives, against lefties in the last 30 days.

New York has minimized strikeouts to 18.8% against lefties in those same 30 days while earning 11.1% of walks.

Astros vs. Mets: Game Prediction

Nobody will be surprised if the Astros hit for power against the Mets tonight. Carrasco has allowed a wOBA of .410 and ISO of .347 to lefties in the last 30 days but has also allowed a .366 wOBA and ISO of .218 to righties in the last 30 days.

The only thing keeping Carrasco from getting lit up has been his 26.7% strikeout rate and 45.2% of ground balls.

Meanwhile, Valdez has allowed a BABIP of .212 in the last 30 days. That’s likely not going to last, but this number is mainly due to his high ground ball rate and low line drive rate.

The Mets will need to work counts and earn walks against Valdez if they’re going to look to score runs. Home runs will be hard to come by, but playing small ball could be the answer against Valdez.

MLB Pick for Today

The Astros have elite power and should have no problem hitting Carrasco in his second straight start against the Astros.

  • Jose Altuve
  • Alex Bregman
  • Alvarez

Have all been hot against righties in the last 30 days when it comes to wOBA and ISO numbers.

Meanwhile, Astros pitchers have been electric and even shut down the Yankees for 15 straight innings, without allowing a run.

But the Mets have had different approaches this year. They’ve hung around in counts, bunted on base, and hit balls into open areas in a shift.

The Mets will have to do the little things to score runs and stick around. Therefore, I like the over in this game between the Mets and Astros.

With my MLB pick of the day, I’ll take the Over 8 (-115) in this matchup.

Score Prediction: Astros 6 - Mets 4

MLB Pick: Over 8 (-115) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Over 8 (-115)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.